614
FXUS63 KDLH 120000
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVER SNOW.
- SNOW PACK TEMPERATURE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IS RIGHT AT
FREEZING, SO IT SHOULD EFFICIENTLY MELT WITH ANY RAINFALL AND
ELEVATE THE FLOOD THREAT.
- WE HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH QPF, BUT FLOODING THREAT REMAINS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY, BRINGING A LARGE HAIL RISK TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A PROMINENT TONGUE OF MOISTURE PUSHES
NORTHWARD. TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH QPF FROM PRIOR FORECASTS, BUT
ABOVE NBM FOR THIS INITIAL ROUND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. ADDED FOG TONIGHT IN AREAS WITH COLD SNOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE REGION, WHICH WILL LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP
COOL AND SATURATE THE AIR MASS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, A SECOND WARM FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY WARM SPRING DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS, BUT NOT COOK
COUNTY WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP IT COOL AND IN THE 40S. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, WHERE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF STORMS CAN BREACH THE
CAPPING INVERSION.
A CRITICAL HYDROLOGY COMPONENT TO MONITOR IS THAT THE SNOW PACK
TEMPERATURE ACROSS NW WI IS RIGHT AT FREEZING, SO IT SHOULD
EFFICIENTLY MELT WITH RAINFALL. DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH QPF, THIS EFFICIENT MELTING COMBINED WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR MINOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE AND POTENTIALLY THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE DEEPER SNOWPACK REMAINS AS IT RIPENS MORE QUICKLY
WITH THESE WARM TEMPERATURES. FEEL LIKE THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
COVERS THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN UNLESS THINGS CHANGE AS THE QPF
AXES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH RADAR TRENDS.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS AS
A SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SOAR INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL FUEL ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON STORM MODE. TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN, ISOLATED STORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH
SEVERE CHANCES LOOK SLIGHTLY LOWER.
BY WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. EXPECT
THURSDAY TO BE MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL. BY FRIDAY, A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S
AND 50S AND REINTRODUCING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS AS OF ISSUANCE TIME, WITH
A WAVE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN IT. I EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AS CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LOWER TO 1KFT OR LOWER, WITH VISIBILITIES DIPPING TO
1-2SM. KDLH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL ALSO HAVE ONSHORE
FLOW WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE, ALONGSIDE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 16Z, WITH ALL BUT
KINL RETURNING TO VFR ABOUT 22Z.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT, CHANNELING DOWN THE SOUTHWESTERN ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, KEEPING WAVE ACTION CHOPPY
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHILE PATCHY FOG LIMITS VISIBILITY.
STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 TO 40
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE I-35
CORRIDOR. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15 TO 25 MPH. REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAIN STARTING THIS EVENING WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE MAY SEE A DRY AND
BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE MORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR BAYFIELD, ASHLAND, AND IRON
COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE WATCH REMAINS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS IT WILL BE LESS
THE TRADITIONAL SENSE FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AND MORE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1-2" OF RAIN OVER SEVERAL DAYS COMBINED
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-5 INCHES OF SNOW WATER TO MELT OUT OF
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTH
SHORE AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BOTH FOR THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON -
SUNDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME AND FOR THE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WHOLE.
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION, SOME POCKETS
OF LOCALLY HIGHER AND LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOULD THIS FIRST ROUND CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN REGARDING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THEN FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WOULD ALSO DECREASE.
WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR RIVER RISE/FLOOD CONCERNS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS WELL GIVEN THE DEEPER SNOWPACK TO 12-24"+
OF SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 5-7"+ THERE.
HOWEVER, THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE NORTH SHORE. ADDITIONALLY, DESPITE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW, LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-20F COLDER AND LOW TEMPERATURES 5-15F COLDER THAN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE SNOWMELT PROCESS THERE
RELATIVE TO THE SOUTH SHORE. SHOULD PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
AND/OR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INCREASE FOR THE NORTH SHORE FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AS FOR RIVER AND STREAM CONCERNS, THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING REMAINS WITH THE TYLER FORKS NEAR MELLEN, WHICH
COULD SEE MINOR FLOODING BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW HEAVY THE FIRST COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE. THE
BAD RIVER AND NEMADJI RIVERS ALSO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO RISE
INTO ACTION STAGE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME DEPENDING
ON HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ002>004.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...WOLFE
FIRE WEATHER...WOLFE
HYDROLOGY...ROTHSTEIN
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