611
FXUS63 KDLH 131954
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
254 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DECREASED SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AREAS THIS EVENING, WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF TWO INCH
GOLF BALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED, MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.
- MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAINLY
STAY TO OUR SOUTH, THOUGH A FEW COULD CLIP OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
SMALL HAIL.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES, WITH A COUPLE MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A THICK DECK OF LOW STRATUS LINGERS FROM MORNING FOG OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS CLOUD COVER, COMBINED WITH A SMALL LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
SOON TO REACH PINE COUNTY, WILL PREVENT THE FAVORABLE SEVERE
WEATHER ENVIRONMENT FROM REACHING MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A
TARGETED SEVERE THREAT REMAINS THIS EVENING FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ZONES, PARTICULARLY AROUND PRICE COUNTY. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER DUE TO A
VERY DEEP HAIL GROWTH LAYER ALOFT. THE TORNADO AND WIND THREAT
HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AS STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN
SURFACE BASED, BUT A FEW STRONG GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IF A STORM MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH
BEFORE ELEVATING. ADDITIONALLY, A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK
CONTINUES TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE AS MORE RAIN FALLS ON
SATURATED SOILS AND REMAINING EXISTING SNOWPACK.
MOVING INTO TOMORROW, ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD CLIP OUR SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. MEANWHILE, A BROADER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL, TOPPING OUT IN THE
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SENDS A WARM FRONT LIFTING
TOWARDS THE NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED SOUTH, AND MOST
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN STAY TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY REACH OUR
SOUTHERN CWA BORDER, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE,
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND.
BY THURSDAY, THE REGION GETS A BRIEF AND PARTIAL BREAK,
THOUGH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR
UPWARD TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE 60S UP TO 70
DEGREES UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE HIGHLY DYNAMIC AS A LARGE, ELONGATED
SYSTEM PULLS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE, BRINGING WARM AIR AND PUSHING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS INFLUX
OF WARM, MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS A STRONG FRONT PASSES. A QUICK CHANGE ARRIVES
FOR FRIDAY ON THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS, SENDING OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SATURDAY.
SINCE WE'VE BEEN WARM LATELY, THE GROUND WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, IF ANY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE ISOLATED AREAS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES,
THOUGH THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES. FORTUNATELY, THE CHILL IS
SHORT LIVED, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO
THE 50S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WHERE STRATUS LINGERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MAY SEE SOME LIFTING BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH AND LEADS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY NEAR HYR, WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE RAIN SHOWERS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL
SLOWLY LIFT ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND
WAVES BUILDING TO 4 FEET, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
AND OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AND BECOME
VARIABLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR
TERM. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION WET WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%, AND WINDS
WILL GENERALLY STAY UNDER 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ON FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTH.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
OVER THE PAST 72 HRS WE HAVE HAD A FEW SWATHS OF 0.25-0.50" OVER
OUR EXISTING SNOWPACK INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND THE SOUTH SHORE.
THE HIGHEST SWATCH OF OVER 1" RAN THROUGH SAWYER INTO SOUTHERN
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE
ACROSS OUR FLOOD WATCH COUNTIES, BUT CHANCES HAVE DECREASED AS
THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR STORM INITIATION
IS PROJECTED TO BE FARTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND
0.50" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD ANY
STORMS DEVELOP. TUESDAY'S ACTIVITY ALSO LOOKS TO BE MORE LIGHT
RAIN FOCUSED ON NORTHERN MN. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE OPTED TO
SHORTEN THE DURATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH TO TUESDAY MORNING.
AN IMPRESSIVELY WARM DAY FOR SUNDAY HAS HELP TO MELT MORE OF THE SNOW
PACK. THE SOUTH SHORE SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
AND EVEN THE NORTH SHORE GOT IN ON SOME OF THE WARMTH ACTION WITH
HIGHS CAPPING OUT IN THE 50S. MODELED SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE SAW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE LOSING AS MUCH AS 8" IN JUST 24
HRS. THE NORTH SHORE'S >24" FOOT PRINT HAS ALSO BEEN REDUCED FROM
THE ARROWHEAD TO MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE. IT'S
HARD TO KNOW THE EXTENT OF HOW MUCH WATER THIS HAS RETURNED TO THE
SOIL BUT ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE IT IS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 2".
TAKING A TRIP THROUGH SOME OF RIVER GAUGES DOES SHOW SOME RESPONSE
TO THIS ADDED LIQUID FROM SNOW MELT. ACROSS THE MN SITES THE RIVER
HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASE 0.5-1.0' NW WI WHERE WE SAW THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE MELTING HAS SEEN RISES OF 2-3' ACROSS SEVERAL RIVERS.
THE TYLER FORKS RIVER NEAR MELLEN WI IS STILL THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH A FLOOD WARNING ALREADY IN EFFECT. THIS RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO CREST ON TUESDAY MORNING JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE AND MOVE OUT OF MINOR FLOODING THURSDAY.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ002>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CDT
TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
TUESDAY FOR LSZ142>147-150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
HYDROLOGY...BRITT
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