578
FXUS63 KDLH 140756
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
256 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY TODAY AS CLOUDS EMANATE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR, FOGGY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
- LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN MN TODAY
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND
ON FRIDAY
- SNOW POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STILL APPEARING ON
RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. LATER THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THERE IS SOME VERY WEAK MUCAPE IN
THE MORNING THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF IMPACTFUL RAIN OR STORMS.
LOOK FOR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVES WEST TO EAST EXITING THE
ARROWHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL ALSO SEE VERY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL HELP SPREAD THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 3AM SHOWS THIS EXPANSIVE
CLOUD HAS ALREADY ENGULFED NW WI AND IS QUICKLY HEADING TOWARDS
THE IRON RANGE AND THE BRAINERD LAKE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS BLANKET EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT,
ESPECIALLY THE CLOSER YOU GET TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THIS IN
MIND WE HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES 2-5F ACROSS THE REGION
FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HAD.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
WE GET A SMALL REPRIEVE IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE NORTHLAND FINDS ITSELF IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE 00Z
SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTHEAST
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT A QUICK GLANCE AT BOTH THE AIGFS AND EC-AIFS
SHOWS NORTHWEST WI STILL GETTING CLIPPED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW
END POPS OF 30-40%. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYING WELL OFF
TO OUR SOUTH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARD IF ANY STORMS DO
MANAGE TO FORM. THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO
STAY THAT WAY WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS PROPAGATING IT INTO
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE TRADITIONAL COOLER BY
THE LAKE TYPE OF DAY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND:
FRIDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE OUR NEXT ACTIVE AND IMPACTFUL
WEATHER DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH AN ELONGATED SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NORTHERN MOST LOW PRESSURE LOOKS
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A BROAD
WARM SECTOR THAT WILL SEE INCREASED DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A GULF CONNECTION BOOSTING OUR PWATS
AND ADDING FUEL TO THE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ADEQUATE BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ALL
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS FRIDAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTS WE WILL SEE A PLUNGE OF COLD AIR CRASHING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW WARM WE HAVE BEEN OUR GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAKE QUICK WORK OF THIS SNOW. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR INCREASED RATES LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE REGION PROVIDING A BOOST
TO SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE WANTS TO HAVE A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR SATURDAY, BUT NOT SURE THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE EVEN WITH THE BOOST IN FORCING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND THE HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID
APRIL SHOULD ALSO WORK AGAINST THESE TOTALS. SLRS ARE CURRENTLY 15-
16:1 WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, 10:1 MAX WOULD
PROBABLY BE GENEROUS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STILL FLOATING ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN MN. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
START THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD A MARINE LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LOWERING
CLOUDS TO LIFR AND PRODUCING FOG. THIS LAYER IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ADDITIONAL
RAIN THAT COMES THROUGH NORTHERN MN IN THE MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE GUSTIEST NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE PASSED WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE LAKE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
DECK EMANATING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD DECK MAY SINK
LOWER TO THE LAKE LEADING TO DENSE FOG, HOWEVER, WEBCAMS HAVE NOT
SHOWN THIS DEVELOPMENT YET AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER
THIS WILL COME TO FRUITION. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AT LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS MIN RHS LARGELY STAY
ABOVE 40%. A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME
DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR RHS TO APPROACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA. WIDESPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY SNOW POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
OVER THE PAST 72 HRS WE HAVE HAD A FEW SWATHS OF 0.25-0.50" OVER
OUR EXISTING SNOWPACK INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND THE SOUTH SHORE.
THE HIGHEST SWATCH OF OVER 1" RAN THROUGH SAWYER INTO SOUTHERN
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE
ACROSS OUR FLOOD WATCH COUNTIES, BUT CHANCES HAVE DECREASED AS
THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR STORM INITIATION
IS PROJECTED TO BE FARTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AROUND
0.50" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD ANY
STORMS DEVELOP. TUESDAY'S ACTIVITY ALSO LOOKS TO BE MORE LIGHT
RAIN FOCUSED ON NORTHERN MN. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE OPTED TO
SHORTEN THE DURATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH TO TUESDAY MORNING.
AN IMPRESSIVELY WARM DAY FOR SUNDAY HAS HELP TO MELT MORE OF THE SNOW
PACK. THE SOUTH SHORE SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
AND EVEN THE NORTH SHORE GOT IN ON SOME OF THE WARMTH ACTION WITH
HIGHS CAPPING OUT IN THE 50S. MODELED SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE SAW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE LOSING AS MUCH AS 8" IN JUST 24
HRS. THE NORTH SHORE'S >24" FOOT PRINT HAS ALSO BEEN REDUCED FROM
THE ARROWHEAD TO MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE. IT'S
HARD TO KNOW THE EXTENT OF HOW MUCH WATER THIS HAS RETURNED TO THE
SOIL BUT ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE IT IS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 2".
TAKING A TRIP THROUGH SOME OF RIVER GAUGES DOES SHOW SOME RESPONSE
TO THIS ADDED LIQUID FROM SNOW MELT. ACROSS THE MN SITES THE RIVER
HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASE 0.5-1.0' NW WI WHERE WE SAW THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE MELTING HAS SEEN RISES OF 2-3' ACROSS SEVERAL RIVERS.
THE TYLER FORKS RIVER NEAR MELLEN WI IS STILL THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH A FLOOD WARNING ALREADY IN EFFECT. THIS RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO CREST ON TUESDAY MORNING JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE AND MOVE OUT OF MINOR FLOODING THURSDAY.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
HYDROLOGY...BRITT
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