521
FXUS63 KDLH 141058
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
558 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY TODAY AS CLOUDS EMANATE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR, FOGGY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
- LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN MN TODAY
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND
ON FRIDAY
- SNOW POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STILL APPEARING ON
RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. LATER THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND PRODUCE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THERE IS SOME VERY WEAK MUCAPE IN
THE MORNING THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF IMPACTFUL RAIN OR STORMS.
LOOK FOR THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVES WEST TO EAST EXITING THE
ARROWHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL ALSO SEE VERY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL HELP SPREAD THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 3AM SHOWS THIS EXPANSIVE
CLOUD HAS ALREADY ENGULFED NW WI AND IS QUICKLY HEADING TOWARDS
THE IRON RANGE AND THE BRAINERD LAKE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS BLANKET EXPANDING FARTHER
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT,
ESPECIALLY THE CLOSER YOU GET TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THIS IN
MIND WE HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES 2-5F ACROSS THE REGION
FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE HAD.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
WE GET A SMALL REPRIEVE IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE NORTHLAND FINDS ITSELF IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE 00Z
SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTHEAST
WITH THE SYSTEM BUT A QUICK GLANCE AT BOTH THE AIGFS AND EC-AIFS
SHOWS NORTHWEST WI STILL GETTING CLIPPED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW
END POPS OF 30-40%. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STAYING WELL OFF
TO OUR SOUTH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARD IF ANY STORMS DO
MANAGE TO FORM. THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO
STAY THAT WAY WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS PROPAGATING IT INTO
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE TRADITIONAL COOLER BY
THE LAKE TYPE OF DAY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND:
FRIDAY IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE OUR NEXT ACTIVE AND IMPACTFUL
WEATHER DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WITH AN ELONGATED SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NORTHERN MOST LOW PRESSURE LOOKS
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A BROAD
WARM SECTOR THAT WILL SEE INCREASED DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A GULF CONNECTION BOOSTING OUR PWATS
AND ADDING FUEL TO THE ATMOSPHERE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ADEQUATE BULK
SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ALL
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
AS FRIDAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTS WE WILL SEE A PLUNGE OF COLD AIR CRASHING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FALL AS SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW WARM WE HAVE BEEN OUR GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAKE QUICK WORK OF THIS SNOW. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR INCREASED RATES LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE REGION PROVIDING A BOOST
TO SYNOPTIC FORCING. THE CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE WANTS TO HAVE A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR SATURDAY, BUT NOT SURE THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE EVEN WITH THE BOOST IN FORCING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND THE HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR MID
APRIL SHOULD ALSO WORK AGAINST THESE TOTALS. SLRS ARE CURRENTLY 15-
16:1 WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, 10:1 MAX WOULD
PROBABLY BE GENEROUS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
WIDESPREAD LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A MAINSTAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH SOME
EROSION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, FOG WILL RETURN LATER
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MN BEGINNING LATER
THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND EXIT THE ARROWHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE GUSTIEST NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE PASSED WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE LAKE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
DECK EMANATING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD DECK MAY SINK
LOWER TO THE LAKE LEADING TO DENSE FOG, HOWEVER, WEBCAMS HAVE NOT
SHOWN THIS DEVELOPMENT YET AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER
THIS WILL COME TO FRUITION. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AT LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS MIN RHS LARGELY STAY
ABOVE 40%. A SURGE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME
DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR RHS TO APPROACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA. WIDESPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY SNOW POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
RECENT SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAVE
LED TO RISING AND HIGH RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. PRETTY MUCH
EVERY RIVER GAUGE ONE CAN LOOK AT ACROSS NE MN AND NW WI HAS SEEN
SOME RISE. ACROSS THE IRON RANGE, BRAINERD LAKES, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND INTO NW WI (OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTH SHORE), RISES HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONTROLLED AND MINOR. ON THE NORTH SHORE, ANTECEDENT
COLDER SNOWPACK AND A TEMPERED RETURN TO WARMER SPRING
TEMPERATURES HAS MEANT THE MELT IS STILL GETTING GOING. MOST
OBSERVED RIVER LEVEL TRENDS STILL ON THE UP SWING HERE. THE BEAVER
RIVER NEAR BEAVER BAY IS JUST STARTING TO FLIRT WITH ACTION STAGE
THIS MORNING, WITH WATER EXPECTED TO BE JUST COMING OUT OF BANKS AT
THIS STAGE WITH SOME POSSIBLE WET SPOTS ALONG THE SUPERIOR HIKING
TRAIL. OTHER NORTH SHORE STREAMS ARE FOLLOWING THAT LEAD WITH HIGH
FLOWS EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERWAYS IN LAKE AND COOK COUNTY THROUGH
THIS WEEK AS DAILY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING KEEP THE MELT GOING.
ON THE SOUTH SHORE, RECENT NOTABLE RISES ACROSS THE BAD RIVER
WATERSHED HAVE STARTED TO TURN OVER. ON THE BAD, TYLER FORKS, AND
POTATO RIVERS, A CREST WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT WITH DOWNWARD TRENDS
THIS MORNING. AS ALL THESE RIVERS ARE FEEDING FROM A SIMILAR
SNOWPACK THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE PEAK OF SNOWMELT RATES HAS COME AND
GONE. SOME SNOW REMAINS WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IN RIVER STAGE BUT WITH AN EMBEDDED DIURNAL RISE AS SNOWMELT
IS ENHANCED IN THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE NEAR TERM THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN-ON-SNOW FLOODING APPEARS TO BE PAST FOR THE TIME
BEING, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING, WITH
LINGERING FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE TYLER FORKS AND MONTREAL RIVERS.
WHILE SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK, IT'S NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY-SATURDAY THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR REMAINING
SNOWMELT TO KEEP WORKING THROUGH AREA WATERWAYS. BY THE TIME FRIDAY
ROLLS AROUND, IT SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE THAT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK REMAINING WOULD PROBABLY BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH SOME
POCKETS OF SNOW LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAYFIELD,
ASHLAND, AND IRON COUNTIES. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD BE TWO-FOLD ON
FRIDAY: RAIN-ON-SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ADDING ONTO PERSISTING
HIGH FLOWS, AND PLUVIAL FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY SATURATED (MOSTLY NW WI).
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
HYDROLOGY...LEVENS
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