119
FXUS63 KDLH 141828
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
128 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- COLDER LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY AND TONIGHT:
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR AND AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THESE WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF A COMPACT LITTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SKIRTING ALONG THE MN/CA BORDER. FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS
THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, WIND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THAT
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER ARE IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD START OUT
CLOUDY AND FOGGY, SO TEMPERATURES DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WE CAN
CLEAR OUT. ON THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, AND THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECAST IS AROUND 30 TO 35
PERCENT, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70, EXCEPT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY/MONDAY:
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THAT WILL BRING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE DRIER MOVES ON TOP OF IT. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR STORMS IS ALONG I-35 AND EAST. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL PROBABLY BE SEVERE HAIL, BUT THERE IS A WIND THREAT GIVEN
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
NORTHWEST WIND USHERS A RETURN ARCTIC AIR. MEANWHILE THE OVERALL
STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, AND AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY WET
SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. ONE WOULD EXPECT LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS IF
THIS FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE APRIL SUN ANGLE
AND WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. SNOW WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT THE COOL AIR WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND LOWER 50S MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS, LOW CLOUDS, AND POCKETS
OF FOG LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
EXPECT MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA TAF
SITES, BUT COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AT KHYR. OVERNIGHT A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION, MEANING LIGHT WINDS AND SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS, SO BROUGHT BACK THE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISBYS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE ENDED, SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF RAIN IN THE TAFS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE GUSTIEST NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAVE PASSED WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS STILL BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE LAKE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD
DECK EMANATING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD DECK MAY SINK
LOWER TO THE LAKE LEADING TO DENSE FOG, HOWEVER, WEBCAMS HAVE NOT
SHOWN THIS DEVELOPMENT YET AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER
THIS WILL COME TO FRUITION. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED AT LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WFO MPX
AVIATION...WFO MPX
MARINE...BRITT
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