447
FXUS63 KDLH 142349
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
215 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY FOR SHORELINE COUNTIES AND THE MN BORDERLANDS.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- COLDER LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY AND TONIGHT:
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR AND AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THESE WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF A COMPACT LITTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SKIRTING ALONG THE MN/CA BORDER. FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS
THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, WIND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THAT
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER ARE IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD START OUT
CLOUDY AND FOGGY, SO TEMPERATURES DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WE CAN
CLEAR OUT. ON THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, AND THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECAST IS AROUND 30 TO 35
PERCENT, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70, EXCEPT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY/MONDAY:
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THAT WILL BRING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE DRIER MOVES ON TOP OF IT. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR STORMS IS ALONG I-35 AND EAST. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL PROBABLY BE SEVERE HAIL, BUT THERE IS A WIND THREAT GIVEN
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
NORTHWEST WIND USHERS A RETURN ARCTIC AIR. MEANWHILE THE OVERALL
STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, AND AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY WET
SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. ONE WOULD EXPECT LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS IF
THIS FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE APRIL SUN ANGLE
AND WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. SNOW WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT THE COOL AIR WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND LOWER 50S MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIFTING CEILINGS AT INLAND TERMINALS
THIS EVENING, PREDOMINANT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. DENSE FOG IS VERY LIKELY
AT SHORELINE AND MN BORDERLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO 12-15Z
WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IMPROVE FROM 15 TO 20Z WED.
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TODAY,
AS THEY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL DENSE FOG.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. WAVES WILL BE LESS
THAN 2 FEET BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING HIGH WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WITH WAVES 3 TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE ON SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE FIRE WEATHER RISK IS LOW TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF
TODAY WILL HAVE HIGH RH TODAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH RH. ON
WEDNESDAY, RH WILL BE A BIT LOWER, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH AND
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 TO 35 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER ON FRIDAY, BUT HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRING NORTHWEST WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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