541
FXUS63 KDLH 151938
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES (60S AND 70S) AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOGGY AND IN THE 30S AND 40S CLOSEST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR.
- DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
LEADING TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS IN
MINNESOTA.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG I-35 AND EAST INTO NW WI.
- COLDER LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IS LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING, SO WE HAVE OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY
EXPIRING AT 15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR, THE MN ARROWHEAD, AND NW WI.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WE'LL SEE PROLIFIC WAA SHOOT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 50S, 60S, AND EVEN LOW
TO MID 70S TOMORROW. THIS WILL BE FOR MOST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE LAKE, THAT WARM AIR MASS SHOULD HELP
ENCOURAGE A LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION KEEPING COASTLINE AREAS MUCH
COOLER. HAVE BLENDED IN SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE TO ADJUST
COASTAL TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THOSE VERY
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR (WITHIN A COUPLE MILES) WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE HIGH 30S TO LOW 40S AND MAY SEE MORE
PERSISTENT FOG.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THAT
WILL BRING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WHILE DRIER MOVES ON TOP OF IT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS IS ALONG I-35 AND EAST WHERE THE SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 600 TO 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE SEVERE HAIL FROM ELEVATED STORMS,
BUT THERE IS A WIND THREAT GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE.
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR SNOW CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY AND TONIGHT:
EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR AND AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA. THESE WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF A COMPACT LITTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS SKIRTING ALONG THE MN/CA BORDER. FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS
THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, WIND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THAT
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER ARE IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD START OUT
CLOUDY AND FOGGY, SO TEMPERATURES DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY WE CAN
CLEAR OUT. ON THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, AND THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT HUMIDITY FORECAST IS AROUND 30 TO 35
PERCENT, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE EXPECT SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70, EXCEPT ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY/MONDAY:
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THAT WILL BRING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE DRIER MOVES ON TOP OF IT. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR STORMS IS ALONG I-35 AND EAST. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL PROBABLY BE SEVERE HAIL, BUT THERE IS A WIND THREAT GIVEN
THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
NORTHWEST WIND USHERS A RETURN ARCTIC AIR. MEANWHILE THE OVERALL
STORM SYSTEM WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, AND AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY WET
SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES. ONE WOULD EXPECT LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS IF
THIS FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE APRIL SUN ANGLE
AND WARM PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. SNOW WILL END SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT THE COOL AIR WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S SUNDAY AND LOWER 50S MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
AROUND 20Z. FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT
EXCEPT AT BRD. LOW CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AS WELL. THE LOW
CEILINGS WILL BE TIED TO THE FOG. IF FOG DOESN'T DEVELOP, SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP AFTER 16.21Z
AS A SOUTHERLY JET PASSES OVER THE REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CALM OUT ON THE LAKE, WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION STARTS UP.
THURSDAY, STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS UP TO 20KNOTS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. INTO
FRIDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THEN
BECOME NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT ANOTHER
ROUND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH VERY WARM INLAND
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, FOG COULD LINGER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FOG IS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD OVERNIGHT WITH MAXIMUM RH
VALUES ABOVE 85%. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EFFICIENT MIXING IS
FORECAST ONCE THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 28
MPH ARE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE
WEAKER WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. NEAR-CRITIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. WARM AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER
THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS FAVORED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AND ADVANCE EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
VARY FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO AN INCH OR MORE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR
IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WARMING TREND
BEGINS SUNDAY. DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY MONDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
ELEVATED STREAMFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES. ACROSS THE IRON RANGE,
BRAINERD LAKES, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND INTO NW WI (OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTH SHORE), RISES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONTROLLED AND MINOR. ON
THE NORTH SHORE, ANTECEDENT COLDER SNOWPACK AND A TEMPERED
RETURN TO WARMER SPRING TEMPERATURES HAS MEANT THE MELT IS STILL
GETTING GOING. NORTH SHORE RIVERS ARE STEADILY INCREASING TO
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A STEADY SNOWMELT LEVEL WITH SOME DIURNAL BUMPS
FORCED BY MORE RAPID AFTERNOON MELT. THE BEAVER RIVER NEAR
BEAVER BAY IS WITHIN ACTION STAGE THIS MORNING, WITH WATER
EXPECTED TO BE JUST COMING OUT OF BANKS AT THIS STAGE WITH SOME
POSSIBLE WET SPOTS ALONG THE SUPERIOR HIKING TRAIL. OTHER NORTH
SHORE STREAMS ARE FOLLOWING THAT LEAD WITH HIGH FLOWS EXPECTED
FOR MOST WATERWAYS IN LAKE AND COOK COUNTY THROUGH THIS WEEK AS
DAILY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING KEEP THE MELT GOING.
ON THE SOUTH SHORE, RIVERS HAVE STARTED TO TURN OVER AND ARE EITHER
HOLDING STEADY OR STARTING TO COME DOWN. FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG
THE MONTREAL RIVER ON THE WI/MI BORDER. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN
RIVER STAGE BUT WITH AN EMBEDDED DIURNAL BUMPS IS EXPECTED AS
SNOWMELT IS ENHANCED IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK, IT'S NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY-SATURDAY THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR REMAINING
SNOWMELT TO KEEP WORKING THROUGH AREA WATERWAYS. BY THE TIME FRIDAY
ROLLS AROUND, IT SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE THAT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK REMAINING WOULD PROBABLY BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH SOME
POCKETS OF SNOW LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAYFIELD,
ASHLAND, AND IRON COUNTIES. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD BE TWO-FOLD ON
FRIDAY: RAIN-ON-SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ADDING ONTO PERSISTING
HIGH FLOWS, AND PLUVIAL FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SATURATED (MOSTLY NW WI).
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>148-150.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR LSZ142.
UPDATE...LEVENS / MPX
DISCUSSION...NLY / MPX
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
HYDROLOGY...LEVENS
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