813
FXUS63 KDLH 152328
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
628 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES (60S AND 70S) AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOGGY AND IN THE 30S AND 40S CLOSEST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR.
- DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
LEADING TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS IN
MINNESOTA.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG I-35 AND EAST INTO NW WI.
- COLDER LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND
BECOME DENSE WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY
FOR ZONES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
FARTHER INLAND AND AN EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
AROUND THE SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 40S AND 50S. CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTY
WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO NEAR 30 MPH FORECAST. EFFICIENT MIXING WILL CAUSE RH
VALUES TO DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF OUR
MINNESOTA AREA. IF FOG AND LOW STRATUS PERSISTS LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THE ONSET OF THE DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE
DELAYED AND RH VALUES MAY NOT FALL AS LOW AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
FOG AND STRATUS TO RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL AID IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE
AGAIN. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW, WILL
NOSE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A COOL
FRONT FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
OVER MINNESOTA FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
PROVIDE SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN
BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS WHICH DEVELOP. THE RISK IS
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL SINCE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY LAG
BEHIND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.
FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION RATES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A SHARP CONTRAST WITH UPPER
30S NEAR BIRCHDALE IN NORTHWEST KOOCHICHING COUNTY TO THE LOW
AND MIDDLE 70S OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS FARTHER EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AND
INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AN NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SATURDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 30S ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA
THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH WARMER,
DRIER, AND GUSTIER CONDITIONS MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BY WITHOUT MUCH PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY. IF THE
FRONT PASSES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPS
WILL RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER, TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR UNTIL 04Z WHEN FOG SHOULD TAKE HOLD AGAIN AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR AFFECTING KDLH UNTIL MORNING (16Z ISH). OTHER
TERMINALS POSSIBLY AFFECTED BY THIS MAY BE KHIB AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT KHYR AND KINL. KBRD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG. LIGHT WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TURNING WINDS
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING
OCCURS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY. WIND AND WAVES MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT
NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. A COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
BACK NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRENGTHEN. WIND AND
WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT BY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE
IS ALSO A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN A MILE OR TWO OF SHORE.
FARTHER AWAY FROM SHORE STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO
THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES KEEPING THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE STABLE.
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL PERSIST SATURDAY AND CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
FOG IS EXPECTED AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH OTHERWISE
CLEAR SKIES. RH RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD OVERNIGHT WITH MAXIMUM RH
VALUES ABOVE 85%. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EFFICIENT MIXING IS
FORECAST ONCE THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS BURN OFF. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 28
MPH ARE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHILE
WEAKER WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. NEAR-CRITIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. WARM AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER
THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS FAVORED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AND ADVANCE EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
VARY FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO AN INCH OR MORE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR
IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WARMING TREND
BEGINS SUNDAY. DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY MONDAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
ELEVATED STREAMFLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES. ACROSS THE IRON RANGE,
BRAINERD LAKES, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND INTO NW WI (OUTSIDE OF THE
SOUTH SHORE), RISES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONTROLLED AND MINOR. ON
THE NORTH SHORE, ANTECEDENT COLDER SNOWPACK AND A TEMPERED
RETURN TO WARMER SPRING TEMPERATURES HAS MEANT THE MELT IS STILL
GETTING GOING. NORTH SHORE RIVERS ARE STEADILY INCREASING TO
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A STEADY SNOWMELT LEVEL WITH SOME DIURNAL BUMPS
FORCED BY MORE RAPID AFTERNOON MELT. THE BEAVER RIVER NEAR
BEAVER BAY IS WITHIN ACTION STAGE THIS MORNING, WITH WATER
EXPECTED TO BE JUST COMING OUT OF BANKS AT THIS STAGE WITH SOME
POSSIBLE WET SPOTS ALONG THE SUPERIOR HIKING TRAIL. OTHER NORTH
SHORE STREAMS ARE FOLLOWING THAT LEAD WITH HIGH FLOWS EXPECTED
FOR MOST WATERWAYS IN LAKE AND COOK COUNTY THROUGH THIS WEEK AS
DAILY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING KEEP THE MELT GOING.
ON THE SOUTH SHORE, RIVERS HAVE STARTED TO TURN OVER AND ARE EITHER
HOLDING STEADY OR STARTING TO COME DOWN. FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG
THE MONTREAL RIVER ON THE WI/MI BORDER. AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN
RIVER STAGE BUT WITH AN EMBEDDED DIURNAL BUMPS IS EXPECTED AS
SNOWMELT IS ENHANCED IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK, IT'S NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY-SATURDAY THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR REMAINING
SNOWMELT TO KEEP WORKING THROUGH AREA WATERWAYS. BY THE TIME FRIDAY
ROLLS AROUND, IT SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE THAT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK REMAINING WOULD PROBABLY BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH SOME
POCKETS OF SNOW LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAYFIELD,
ASHLAND, AND IRON COUNTIES. FLOODING CONCERNS COULD BE TWO-FOLD ON
FRIDAY: RAIN-ON-SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ADDING ONTO PERSISTING
HIGH FLOWS, AND PLUVIAL FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS
WHERE CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SATURATED (MOSTLY NW WI).
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>148-150.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
HYDROLOGY...LEVENS
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