164
FXUS63 KDLH 161934
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL AND NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES (60S AND 70S) AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY WITH DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG I-35 AND
EAST INTO NW WI. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
HAVE DECREASED. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
DENSE FOG CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH
OF THIS FOG SHOULD START TO BURN OFF AND RETREAT BACK TO THE COAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS EVEN MORE ROBUST WAA
TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DRASTIC TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WITH LAKE SUPERIOR AND A FOG BANK
MAY LINGER OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD AFFECT COASTAL
AREAS AT TIMES.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
VERY DRY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RH OF 20-30% AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30MPH TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A SPS OUT FOR AREAS IN NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NE MN (NOT INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY
MORE MOIST).
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THAT
WILL BRING SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WHILE DRIER MOVES ON TOP OF IT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED
NORTH JUST A TAD, ALLOWING A NOSE OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FURTHER
INTO THE NORTHLAND. TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND I-35 BY MIDDAY, LARGELY CONFINING THE SEVERE THREAT TO
I-35 CORRIDOR AND EAST WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT (SLIGHT RISK, LEVEL
2/5) FROM SPOONER TO HAYWARD TO IRONWOOD AND SOUTHEAST. RECENT MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED IN NW WI,
INCREASING THE THREAT OF NOT ONLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT
TORNADOES AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTY. ANY
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE EASTWARD
QUICKLY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE UP. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
START TO DEVELOP FROM 12-3PM AND PUSH EAST, WITH MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE BEST STORM ENVIRONMENT OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY
(7PM FRIDAY). ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN UP TO 1". FLOODING CONCERNS ARE FAIRLY MINIMAL
WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT EXTRA WATER WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS WET IN NW WI WITH HIGH STREAMFLOWS. RAIN OVER
MELTING SNOW ON THE NORTH SHORE WILL ALSO KEEP STREAMFLOWS HIGH
THERE BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
A DECENT BLAST OF CAA FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND
TO THE NW FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE
NW WINDS COULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY AND STRONG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30-40MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
BELOW FREEZING AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. WITH THE
NORTHWARD TREND OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY HOWEVER, SNOW
POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED. THOSE ALONG THE BORDER AND IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD MIGHT SEE A TRACE OF ACCUMULATION WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.
RIDGING RETURNS NEXT WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S,
50S, AND 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW OUR
NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE FARTHER
EAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOPING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY MORNING AND CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AT HIB, INL, AND BRD BEFORE 18Z. THERE MAY BE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THOSE TERMINALS. I INTRODUCED A
PROB30 AT INL AND AT BRD FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMES OF PRECIP.
AFTER 17.18Z WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT THE HEAD
OF THE LAKE. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A FOG BANK IS EXPECTED TO STILL
AROUND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND THE MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THIS EVENING. INTO FRIDAY,
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THEN BECOME
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE GOING INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS, HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CRITICAL AND NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AREAS THAT WON'T SEE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
LIMITED TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA, SPECIFICALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM DULUTH NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. WIND GUSTS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND RH VALUES WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER
BETWEEN 6 PM AND SUNSET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING ALL OF
NW WI. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. BOTH MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ025-033.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.
UPDATE...HUYCK
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
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