828
FXUS63 KDLH 170007
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
707 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL AND NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG I-35
AND EAST INTO NW WI. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES.
- COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
HAVE DECREASED. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE FOUND ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTED COOL LAKE AIR INLAND AND OVER FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE A SHARP COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED.
CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE FOUND
OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THOSE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BETWEEN 6 PM AND SUNSET. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND KEEP COLDER TEMPERATURES
RESTRICTED TO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IS FORECAST WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED
TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
DENSE FOG ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF THE NORTH SHORE.
FRIDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS FARTHER
EASTWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS
DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. ROBUST THETA-E
ADVECTION OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THIS RISK IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL. STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY TRANSLATE INTO
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. IN
THAT SCENARIO THE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS CAPPED UNTIL
AFTERNOON, STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
THE I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. KINEMATIC
AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ALL "MODES" OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES).
THE TORNADO RISK IS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING. IF STORMS CAN
BECOME SURFACE-BASED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE. THE PARAMETER SPACE SUGGESTS EF-2
INTENSITY TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SEVERAL
FORECAST MODELS FEATURE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. OTHER GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, FEATURES
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WOULD REDUCE THE RISK OF TORNADOES.
STORMS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE QUICKLY INTO A QLCS WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL INCREASE AFTER THAT UPSCALE
TRANSITION WHILE HAIL THREAT WILL DIMINISH. STORMS WILL BE
MOVING QUICKLY WITH FORECAST BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 40
KNOTS. TRAINING STORMS WILL ALSO SUPPORT A RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
STORMS MOVE OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD BY
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, LESS THAN AN INCH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DWINDLE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL (15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL) SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT QUITE CHILLY.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP ON SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST, TEMPS WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AGAIN WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE A PROB30 FOR THE 08-12Z
TIMEFRAME TONIGHT AT INL ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS TO HIB, INL, AND BRD PRIOR TO 18Z. SOME RAIN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME FOR BRD, HIB, AND DLH. COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS INCREASE WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
MVFR TO NEAR IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH AND MVFR VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE IS FOR HYR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, HAIL AND
INCREASED WIND GUST MENTION MAY NEED TO BY INCLUDED IN THE HYR
TAF ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HOW AND WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND TRACK.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE WAS CANCELLED
AS OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW FOG DISSIPATION. THERE IS A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG/DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THIS OCCURRING TO ISSUE ANY MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BUILD WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND IN
THE SOUTHWEST ARM TO THE TWIN PORTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM AROUND NOON UNTIL EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH SHORE WATERS WITHIN
A MILE OR TWO OF SHORE. FARTHER AWAY FROM SHORE, THE COLD WATERS
WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS REACHING THE
WATER SURFACE. RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL BECOME GUSTY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CRITICAL AND NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AREAS THAT WON'T SEE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
LIMITED TO THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA, SPECIFICALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM DULUTH NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. WIND GUSTS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND RH VALUES WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER
BETWEEN 6 PM AND SUNSET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING ALL OF
NW WI. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. BOTH MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ025-033.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN/HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
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