000
FXUS63 KDLH 010851
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
351 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- A CLIPPER WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TODAY AND SATURDAY...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ARRIVES TODAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT. EXPECT AFTERNOON CU BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE
THAN THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALONG
THE SHORES OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE LOW 50S IN OTHER
PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME WESTERLY.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE
SHORE LINES, AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. MOST OF
THE DAY WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES, WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
DURING THE AFTERNOON, MIN RH VALUES COULD BE AS LOW AS 25
PERCENT, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THAT SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE CLIPPER AND TURN WINDS NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY. RH VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT, WITH WINDS A
BIT STRONGER AT 8 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. SUNDAY
COULD PRESENT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A MORE ROBUST CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, ARRIVING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS CLIPPER BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND A
STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WITH IT. PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD
COULD SEE UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH RAIN, THAT COULD MIX WITH
SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NORTHLAND, AFTER A COUPLE NIGHTS
OF ABOVE FREEZING LOWS.
IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S SYSTEM A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, RHS
WILL BE AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS, NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
SITES. SCT TO BKN MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN 6-8KFT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY, EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND AT DLH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE SHAPING UP FAIRLY QUIET WITH VARIABLE
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, AND A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS MAINLY NEAR
GRAND PORTAGE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PASS
THROUGH THE REGION `SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS WESTERLY ON SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 10
TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AND THE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER VESSELS. THERE IS A
10-15% CHANCE OF GALES OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTH SHORE
MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT NORTH WINDS TODAY, WITH RH
VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, IN
THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TO THE LOW 60S IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 25 AND 35
PERCENT, BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER CROSSES THE
AREA. ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH.
SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WARMER WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE CLIPPER EARLY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER 8 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS OF 12 TO 20 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF MINNESOTA.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA
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