552
FXUS63 KDLH 011825
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
125 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY TODAY THROUGH MOST OF DAYTIME
SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER CHANCES (20-40%) LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES (50-60%) OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
REST OF TODAY - DAYTIME SATURDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION IS KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE ARE A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNSET ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 MPH ALSO WEAKENING AND BECOMING LIGHT
TOWARDS SUNSET, BUT OVERALL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO GO AROUND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER-40S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE AND IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI,
WHILE 50F/LOW-50S FARTHER INLAND. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MIXING HAS
ALREADY PUSHED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE MID 20S TO 30S (%)
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, DRIEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. EXPECT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP DOWN ANOTHER 3-5% BEFORE THE END OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RECOVERING THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO POCKETS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT DIP BELOW FREEZING.
MOST OF DAYTIME SATURDAY WILL BE DRY, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH GIVEN DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MIXING. LOOK FOR
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP DOWN INTO THE
25-35% RANGE ONCE AGAIN, LOWEST IN THE ARROWHEAD, ST. CROIX
RIVER VALLEY, AND WISCONSIN PINE BARRENS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, IT COULD
OCCUR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST AND POCKETS OF LOW 60S IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL MN.
SATURDAY EVENING - EARLY SUNDAY:
A WEAK, FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE NW TO SE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND OR
LESS THAN ONE- TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY
NOT SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ALL. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, RANGING FROM MID-30S NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO LOW 40S IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND.
SUNDAY - MONDAY NIGHT:
WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 TO 25 MPH, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES THAT
COULD BRING AFTERNOON RH VALUES BACK DOWN INTO THE 25-35% RANGE,
WHICH COULD AGAIN LEAD TO POCKETS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-50S NORTH TO LOW/MID-60S SOUTH.
A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS CLIPPER WON'T HAVE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PWATS ONLY AROUND
0.5"), SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH, HIGHEST IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD. SOME VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD ALSO PRODUCE A
COUPLE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN INLAND NW WI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, COLDER AIR
ARRIVING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ON MONDAY EVENING IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
WITH LOWS DIPPING TO AROUND FREEZING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING.
REST OF NEXT WEEK:
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, KEEPING A POOL OF COLDER 850-MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE
REGION THAT WILL LARGELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO
LOW/MID-50S TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH LOWS LARGELY BELOW FREEZING.
SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND RECEDING OF THE
COLDEST PORTION OF THE 850-MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE MID-50S TO
MID-60S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW (20% CHANCE)
FOR DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS EACH DAY TUESDAY-THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY SHOULD
DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S (%), WHICH COULD LEAD TO NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY-FRIDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT AND THE COVERAGE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS CONTINUES UNTIL CLOSE
TO SUNSET FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH BEST COVERAGE AT HYR AND DLH.
SOME NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT, WITH GUSTS TO 15-17 KT THIS
AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT THEN LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES IN, WITH SOME SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
(20-40%) MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE REST OF TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET ON WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, AND A FEW GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS PRIMARILY NEAR GRAND PORTAGE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COOL FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
ON SUNDAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER
VESSELS. THERE IS ALSO A 10-20% CHANCE OF GALES OVER THE WATERS
OF THE NORTH SHORE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AND SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CUMULUS, WITH WIND
GUSTS PERIODICALLY TO 15 MPH WITH DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIP
TO 20-35%, WITH THE LOWEST OF THESE (20-25%) IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MN AND INTO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH DEEP MIXING
HEIGHTS. RH RECOVERS TO 65-80% TONIGHT. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
MID-40S TO LOW/MID-50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING.
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER FOR SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TO THE LOW/MID-60S IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT AGAIN. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (20-40%) FOR LIGHT
RAIN SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TO LOW/MID-60S. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE EARLY SUNDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SPEEDS OF 8-15 MPH AND
GUSTS . WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER 8 TO 15
MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 13 TO 21 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE, LOCALLY DOWN TO
20% IN THE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN PINE BARRENS. BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
GIVEN THE LOWER MIN RHS AND THEN THE BREEZIER WINDS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (50-60%). AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK TO BE UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS, HIGHEST IN
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN
STORE AGAIN FOR MONDAY THOUGH MIN RH WON'T BE AS LOW AT 35-45%.
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WORK WEEK WILL SEE LARGELY NORTHWEST
WINDS, WITH LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND
15 MPH, WITH POCKETS TO 20 MPH. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER CHANCES
(10-20%), WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR ON MIN RH FORECASTS.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT UPPER 20S TO 30S (%) MIN RH VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
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