416
FXUS63 KDLH 020708
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
208 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL LOSE ITS GRIP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR MOST, THOUGH THE NORTH SHORE WILL REMAIN COOLER IN
THE UPPER 40S. CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRACKING ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND YIELD TO ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR- SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S TO LOW 60S. WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. A MUCH
STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS TIMED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CONFIDENCE, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN, SOME SNOW
MAY (20-30% CHANCE) MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
ARROWHEAD LATE MONDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH.
A COLD AIRMASS SETS UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, KEEPING THE NORTHLAND IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO LEAVE THE 40S AND LOW 50S AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL
NIGHTS OF WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS. SOME DIURNAL,
POP-UP SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT THEY WILL BE
LIGHT AND SPORADIC.
A PATTERN SHIFT FINALLY APPEARS LIKELY BY NEXT FRIDAY AND INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST AIR TO RETREAT INTO CANADA.
THIS SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS. EXPECT INCOMING VFR CEILINGS 21-00Z TODAY AS A
CLIPPER APPROACHES AND BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS IN
THE IRON RANGE TO INTERIOR ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWARD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WITH WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. A WEAK CLIPPER BRINGS LIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
FIRST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY
DAYTIME BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AND BUILDING
WAVES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THE NORTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MINIMUM RH VALUES REACH 25-35% AND SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 MPH
TODAY. THE GUSTIEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSET FROM THE
LOWEST RHS THOUGH. A WEAK CLIPPER BRINGS LIGHT AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS FIRST LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WINDS TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST SUNDAY BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND RH VALUES AGAIN DIPPING INTO
THE 25-35% RANGE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 30-45%.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page