418
FXUS63 KDLH 030512
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS
WITH AN ALASKAN RIDGE PATTERN RESULTING IN CONTINUED COOL CANADIAN
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK
CLIPPERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY APRIL MID-WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S, COOLEST ON TUESDAY THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP
LATE-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER WITH A REINFORCING ROUND OF COOLER
AIR ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND.
TODAY/TONIGHT/SUNDAY:
TODAY/TONIGHT A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN RESULTING
IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A ROUND OF LIGHT RAINFALL (80-90 PERCENT
CHANCE PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES) TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR ALOFT IS SLOWER TO
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, AND WITH CLEARING SKIES ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
SOME SURFACE HEATING, HIGHS WILL WARM UP TO NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. DRY BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH THE CLOUD COVER/LIGHT RAIN PREVENTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH BELOW THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE, PRECLUDING ANY
FIRE WEATHER RISK. FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BOTH DAYS AS WELL, WITH A FEW
GUSTS APPROACHING 20-25 KNOTS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN EACH DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY:
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY A MID-LEVEL
SURFACE TROUGH DIVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN SASKATACHEWAN INTO
NORTHERN ONTARIO ALONG A FAIRLY SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A DRY SLOT WEDGES IN ALOFT, BUT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH, NEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT
IS MAINLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND A BIT OF
INSTABILITY (ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG) MAY RESULT IN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS WITH THE SATURDAY NIGHT CLIPPER,
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH THE BEST ODDS FOR
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER; ELSEWHERE ZERO TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP TOTAL
IS EXPECTED. (THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, IF THEY DO INDEED DEVELOP.) GIVEN THE COOL
TEMPS, SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA BOTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW
FALLING OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. (NO MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.)
REST OF THE WORK WEEK:
COOL AND DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. FROST/FREEZE
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL NOT YET BE ISSUED SINCE THE GROWING SEASON
HAS NOT YET BEGUN... WE WILL PROBABLY START CLOSER TO MID MAY GIVEN
THE COOL PATTERN WE ARE IN. (TECHNICAL DETAILS: WE TYPICALLY START
ONCE WE HAVE HIT AROUND 50 GROWING DEGREE DAYS (GDD BASE 50F), WHICH
IS SIMPLY A SUMMATION OF THE DEGREES THE DAILY AVERAGE TEMP IS ABOVE
50F, WITH THE DAILY AVERAGE SIMPLY BEING THE HIGH+LOW DIVIDED BY
TWO. BASED ON OUR CURRENT FORECAST WE WILL BARELY ACCUMULATE MORE
THAN 5 GDD BASE 50F THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.)
THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ON A DAY OR
TWO NEXT WEEK, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. RELATIVE
HUMIDTY VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30-35 PERCENT EACH DAY WILL BE DRY,
BUT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED VFR RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ANY RAINFALL IS SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
SO FAR BACK IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LINGERING VFR SKY DECK
PERSISTS THROUGH 12Z TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. A SECOND INCOMING CLIPPER WILL
BACK WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 21-03Z LATER TODAY AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET BUILDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT AREA TERMINALS BEGINNING 01-06Z THIS
EVENING AND LASTING BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A WEAK CLIPPER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST
WIND 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY A STRONGER SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WIND 10-20 KNOTS AND A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25-30 KNOTS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AND NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS ON THE
NORTH SHORE. CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AND SOUTH SHORE BETWEEN DULUTH
AND PORT WING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE UNLIKELY IN THE NEARSHORE ZONE,
BUT THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHERE A PEAK GUST COULD REACH
GALE FORCE STRENGTH ON THE NORTH SHORE (50 PERCENT CHANCE) NORTH OF
GRAND MARAIS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. (MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES
ELSEWHERE.)
BEYOND MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VERY WEAK WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
GENERALLY DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS, BUT WIDESPREAD NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT TODAY AND
SUNDAY DESPITE A CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH BRINGING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF EAST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE PINE BARRENS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY
FALL TO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE AT THEIR DRIEST. WINDS AROUND 5-10
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW (SOUTHWESTERLY
TODAY, NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY), EXCEPT IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN
(BRAINERD LAKES NORTH TO THE CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST) WHERE A FEW
PEAK GUSTS COULD REACH 20-25 MPH. EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL BOTH
DAYS GIVEN DEEP MIXING EXPECTED AND FORECAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND
WHILE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.05"), THE AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY), RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30-40 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH 5-10 MPH NORTHWEST
WINDS AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL ANTICIPATED.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJM
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...JJM
FIRE WEATHER...JJM
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