752
FXUS63 KDLH 030726
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
226 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH.
- MAINLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER-50S TO MID-60S. A JET OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS PASSES OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING SOME WINDS
MIXING OUT FOR GUSTS TO 25 MPH. AFTER THE JET QUICKLY EXITS THE
AREA, WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH. AS THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND INCOMING ELEVATED CLOUDS ARE OFFSET FROM THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY NO HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE AT THIS
TIME COVERING ANY BORDERLINE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
IF WINDS DO OVERACHIEVE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN RHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 23-28% THEN A LIMITED COVERAGE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE NEEDED
FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT AS A SECOND, STRONGER CLIPPER
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP,
WITH WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE
GROUND. THIS INTENSE WIND PROFILE WILL HELP KEEP THE SURFACE
MIXED, PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO STAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGH-
BASED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
MONDAY BRINGS A SHARP TRANSITION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AROUND SUNRISE, WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A 20 TO
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LOCATIONS FROM THE IRON RANGE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD COULD SEE GUSTS REACHING
45 TO 50 MPH....THOSE LOCATIONS MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IN TIME
IF TRENDS CONTINUE FOR THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MONDAY. A
NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST IN THE GREATER REGION,
WITH NORTHERN MINNESOTA HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW 40S AND INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE LOW 60S. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED STARTING MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 F. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 50S AND EVENTUALLY THE LOWER 60S BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
DESPITE THE DRY AIR, NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AS WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED VFR RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WILL EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ANY RAINFALL IS SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
SO FAR BACK IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LINGERING VFR SKY DECK
PERSISTS THROUGH 12Z TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. A SECOND INCOMING CLIPPER WILL
BACK WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 21-03Z LATER TODAY AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET BUILDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT AREA TERMINALS BEGINNING 01-06Z THIS
EVENING AND LASTING BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR STARTING LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT. ON MONDAY,
WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY AND REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER-50S TO MID-60S. A JET OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS PASSES OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING SOME
SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS MIXING OUT FOR GUSTS TO 25 MPH. AFTER
THE JET QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA, WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY BUT
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH. AS THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND INCOMING ELEVATED CLOUDS ARE OFFSET FROM THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TODAY NO HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME COVERING
BORDERLINE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. IF
WINDS DO OVERACHIEVE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN RHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 23-28% THEN A LIMITED COVERAGE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE NEEDED
FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY LIGHT AND HIGH-BASED RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL FURTHER SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
REMAIN MIXED OUT AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. THESE WELL-MIXED OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS KEEP RECOVERY RHS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 50-70% RANGE.
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AND ANOTHER SHIFT TO
WESTERLY. DISTRICTS IN THE IRON RANGE TO TWIN PORTS TO ARROWHEAD
HAVE A 40% CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS TO 45 MPH MONDAY.
WINDS REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY ONWARD AS A
SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETS UP THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ140>145.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
FIRE WEATHER...NLY
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