560
FXUS63 KDLH 031837
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE (40-60 PERCENT).
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 30
TO 40 MPH.
- FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BEYOND MONDAY, GENERALLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
TODAY INTO MONDAY:
THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONG SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC-
SCALE DETAILS OF HOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT AND
MERGE IS ACTUALLY QUITE COMPLEX, WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY WITH A FEW MID-LEVLE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT WHILE A
COMPACT FAIRLY DEEP LOW ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST, MERGING/PHASING
WITH THE VORT MAXES AROUND THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW AS THEY ALL DIVE
SOUTHWARD. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT, WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST, CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO MORE
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT,
ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AROUND 09Z, DLH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK, AND EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION AND ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY MORNING. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AT LOW LEVELS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MIX DOWN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RECENT GUIDANCE
TRENDING STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS ON THE MAX WIND POTENTIAL,
NOW PERHAPS PEAK GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, BUT WITH THE STRONG BROAD-SCALE FORCING, SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS STILL ANTICIPATED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FURTHER FROM THE LOW CENTER. A
BIT OF A DRY SLOT WEDGES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MID MORNING MONDAY, BUT WITH SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MIXING,
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN (OR SNOW) SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY, MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MN
ARROWHEAD. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, ON THE ORDER OF
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD, LITTLE TO NONE ELSEWHERE. PARTS OF THE REGION SUCH AS THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO I-35 CORRIDOR MAY SEE NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG/NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE, ELSEWHERE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, BUT WARMER IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHERE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S.
REST OF THE WORK WEEK:
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C TO -10C, VALUES WHICH ARE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MARCH AND
EARLY APRIL RATHER THAN EARLY MAY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STILL BRING CLOUD COVER
AND A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP, GREATEST ON THURSDAY WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP RISING TO 10-20 PERCENT FOR SOME SPOTS, BUT
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED GENERALLY THROUGH THE
WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30-40 PERCENT EACH
DAY, WITH CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SURFACE WINDS PRECLUDING ANY KIND
OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO
SET ANY RECORD LOW (COLD) MAX TEMP RECORDS, BUT WILL BE 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS, BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF REINFORCING COOLER
CANADIAN AIR COULD RETURN LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE HORIZON
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL
RESULT IN SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS, A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT, AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY GUSTING TO
30+ KNOTS.
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING A WEAK WARM FRONT IS PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS ALL SITES CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST TOWARDS PAST MIDNIGHT OR SO WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE THROUGH ALL SITES FROM NORTH SOUTH, WITH A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ALL SITES. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR RAIN AT INL/HIB (PERHAPS DLH/HYR TOO), BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT AT INL WHERE A MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AND A SPOTTY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE DAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GUSTS OF
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND PEAK WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE-FORCE
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGEST IN THE TWIN PORTS AND
NORTH SHORE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATERS.
BEYOND MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VERY WEAK WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL
RESULT IN SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS, A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT, AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY GUSTING TO
30+ KNOTS.
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING A WEAK WARM FRONT IS PASSING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS ALL SITES CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST TOWARDS PAST MIDNIGHT OR SO WHEN THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE THROUGH ALL SITES FROM NORTH SOUTH, WITH A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ALL SITES. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LOW CHANCE
FOR RAIN AT INL/HIB (PERHAPS DLH/HYR TOO), BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT AT INL WHERE A MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AND A SPOTTY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL AVIATION IMPACT DURING THE DAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ140>145.
DISCUSSION...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
MARINE...JJM
FIRE WEATHER...JJM
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