991
FXUS63 KDLH 041718
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE THIS MORNING.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS
30 TO 35 MPH.
- FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BEYOND MONDAY, GENERALLY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR INL TO
NEAR FARGO, AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. IN
ADDITION, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE BEST SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE, WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 0.10-0.20INCHES. ELSEWHERE, A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET IS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, AND SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 30-35MPH ARE POSSIBLE. AS
THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, AND REMAIN
STRONG. EXPECT CONTINUED GUSTS OF 30-35MPH THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF STRONGER GUSTS THIS MORNING.
THOSE PERCENTAGES INCREASE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AS DOWNSLOPING
ENHANCES WINDS.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVES QUICKLY, AND EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL MN TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE GOGEBIC
RANGE IN NORTHWEST WI. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STRONG AND THERE IS SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION, IF ANY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, DROPPING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY MORNING AND 20S
ELSEWHERE.
REST OF THE WORK WEEK:
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING,
EXPECT TO BUMP PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
20-30%, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, MEANINGFUL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -5C TO -10C, VALUES WHICH ARE MORE TYPICAL OF LATE MARCH AND
EARLY APRIL RATHER THAN EARLY MAY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STILL BRING CLOUD COVER
AND A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP, GREATEST ON THURSDAY WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP RISING TO 10-20 PERCENT FOR SOME SPOTS, BUT
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED GENERALLY THROUGH THE
WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 30-40 PERCENT EACH
DAY, WITH CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SURFACE WINDS PRECLUDING ANY KIND
OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO
SET ANY RECORD LOW (COLD) MAX TEMP RECORDS, BUT WILL BE 15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY.
NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS, BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF REINFORCING COOLER
CANADIAN AIR COULD RETURN LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE HORIZON
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
MVFR CUMULUS WITH VIRGA/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG
WINDS UP TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WHICH WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND
PEAK WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE- FORCE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST IN THE TWIN PORTS, ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE, AND OVER THE OUTER APOSTLES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATERS.
BEYOND MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VERY WEAK WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING
WIND DIRECTIONS AND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TODAY,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35MPH. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF STRONGER
GUSTS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, WHERE DOWNSLOPING
ENHANCES WINDS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
AFTERNOON'S MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO A 28-35% RANGE
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN,
WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS COULD STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 30MPH.
ELSEWHERE, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35% AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE.
WINDS REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, AS A SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETS UP THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ140>145.
DISCUSSION...HA/JJM
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA
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