230
FXUS63 KDLH 041910
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
210 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SCATTERED
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK. COLDEST LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
- SLIGHT TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS IS LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION, STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE GUSTING 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, DROPPING OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES.
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE CHILLY AND WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK
OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY BUT MUCH LIGHTER THAN MONDAY, GENERALLY GUSTING AROUND 20 TO
25 MPH. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAY AND SKY COVER
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT DROPPING
INTO THE 20S.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPS OUR REGION IN A CHILLY AND
RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING OUR NEXT
WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE (~10%) OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
(20% CHANCE) BY THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WON'T
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR.
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A DRYING AND WARMING TREND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. BY THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE FURTHER, REACHING THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
MVFR CUMULUS WITH VIRGA/SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG
WINDS UP TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WHICH WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
2 TO 5 FEET, CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER VESSELS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-40 MPH ARE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE WINDS
ARE STRONG, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP
PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
142>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141-150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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