091
FXUS63 KDLH 051135
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. COLDEST LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE,
ONLY OCCASIONAL AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND,
INCLUDING ONE THAT PASSED OVER THE OFFICE WITH A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW. AS OF 3AM, RADAR RETURNS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING, WITH
ONLY STRATUS ACROSS THE MUCH OF NORTHEAST MN AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST WI. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S THIS MORNING, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR ALL
OF THE NORTHLAND AROUND SUNRISE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. COLD
850MB TEMPS, AS LOW AS -10C, ARRIVE TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITHIN THE CAA
REGIME WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
SHOWERS AND ADDED CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
IN THE 40-50F RANGE, 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, GENERALLY GUSTING
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES CHILLY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WEDNESDAY PRESENTS A SIMILAR SETUP TO MONDAY AND
TODAY, AND ADDED IN LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, IF AT
ALL. BEYOND THAT, ONLY OCCASIONAL AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES, BUT IT WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY PERSISTS.
FLOW DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NORTHLAND,
LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES DO WARM BACK
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
LOW STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING,
WITH HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2800-3KFT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES
ARE FALLING UNDER THE STRATUS, BUT DO NOT EXPECT IMPACTS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING, AS CIGS BECOME MORE BKN TO SCT, BUT EXPECT HEIGHTS TO
HANG AROUND 3-4KFT.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS
FOR MOST TERMINALS WHEN SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE AT ITS PEAK.
CIGS COULD DIP BACK BELOW 3KFT WITH SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 KT EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, WITH CLEARING SKIES.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WAVES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 4 FEET, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OUTER APOSTLES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10AM TUESDAY FOR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS PERSIST TODAY, GUSTING TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WESTWARD TOWARD THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR, DUE TO WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONG, THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA
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