420
FXUS63 KDLH 051732
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. COLDEST LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE,
ONLY OCCASIONAL AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND,
INCLUDING ONE THAT PASSED OVER THE OFFICE WITH A QUICK BURST OF
SNOW. AS OF 3AM, RADAR RETURNS ARE FINALLY DISSIPATING, WITH
ONLY STRATUS ACROSS THE MUCH OF NORTHEAST MN AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST WI. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S THIS MORNING, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS
WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR ALL
OF THE NORTHLAND AROUND SUNRISE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. COLD
850MB TEMPS, AS LOW AS -10C, ARRIVE TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITHIN THE CAA
REGIME WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS
ALOFT. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
SHOWERS AND ADDED CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
IN THE 40-50F RANGE, 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, GENERALLY GUSTING
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH.
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES CHILLY. WEAK SHORTWAVES WITHIN
THE TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WEDNESDAY PRESENTS A SIMILAR SETUP TO MONDAY AND
TODAY, AND ADDED IN LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, IF AT
ALL. BEYOND THAT, ONLY OCCASIONAL AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES, BUT IT WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED
TO THE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY PERSISTS.
FLOW DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NORTHLAND,
LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, BUT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES DO WARM BACK
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LOW END VFR WITH A FEW MVFR CEILINGS ARE
AFFECTING ALL OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR, AND WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED SOME PROB30 GROUPS AT THE SITES MOST
LIKELY TO GET A SHOWER, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. THIS SAME DIURNAL TREND OF MVFR/VFR
CLOUDS WITH INCREASING WINDS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW,
THOUGH CEILINGS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS LOW NOR WILL WINDS BE QUITE
AS STRONG.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WAVES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 4 FEET, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OUTER APOSTLES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 10AM TUESDAY FOR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS PERSIST TODAY, GUSTING TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES. EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WESTWARD TOWARD THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR, DUE TO WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE WINDS ARE STRONG, THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page