521
FXUS63 KDLH 060603
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
103 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND LOW 30S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE,
ONLY OCCASIONAL AND SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. RADAR HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ANEMIC SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WE HAVE BEEN GETTING REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. A
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH AT
TIMES, MAKING THE AIR FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED, THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT AROUND MID EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. AS THE SKY CLEARS AND
WINDS SETTLE SLIGHTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S TO PERHAPS NEAR 50. THE NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY, SO IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE AS CHILLY
AS TODAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA
AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WE SHOULD ALSO HAVE MORE SUNSHINE BY FRIDAY,
WITH A DRYING TREND CONTRIBUTING TO MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THAT, COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY.
THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE REGION CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS FRIDAY AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S AS A FRESH SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
WELL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS EAST,
ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA, PUSHING
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
AREAS OF STRATUS PERSIST OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT, WITH A
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH OF INL SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE NORTH SHORE. STRATUS CIGS ARE VFR HEIGHTS, AND OTHER THAN A
BRIEF DROP AT INL TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE, EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN
AT VFR. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT INL, HIB, AND DLH BASED ON LATEST
RADAR AND OB TRENDS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. IF A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL, A BRIEF DROP TO 4-5SM IS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AT 6-10KTS, AND WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SEE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES. THESE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY, BUT
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, WITH WAVES
OF 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER HAVE LIMITED DRYING TODAY, SO RH VALUES HAVE ONLY DROPPED
TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT FOR OUR DRIEST AREAS ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TOMORROW SHOULD BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES, THOUGH IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND LESS BREEZY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AND WHILE WINDS WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH THURSDAY, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FOR FRIDAY AND WE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE
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