756
FXUS63 KDLH 061544
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1044 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND TODAY. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY, AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A COOL START TO MAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE
PERCENTILES NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE CLIMATOLOGY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL. FOR TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE FORECAST WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. DEPENDING ON WHAT LEVEL LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINS, A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD (20-30% CHANCE) DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND
UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR LOW TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY, A STRONGER IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN DURING THE MORNING GIVEN THE COOL START TO
THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC
FLOW EASES SOME ALOFT AND THE COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES
INTO CANADA. FRIDAY COULD HAVE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE
PARTNERS ON FUEL CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FIRE BEHAVIOR.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND RETURN OF A CHILLY MAY AIRMASS ARRIVES
THIS WEEKEND TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE
SEEN SO FAR THIS MONTH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS IMPULSES IN CYCLONIC FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO RELENT
SOME AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT A WARM UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (30-50% CHANCE) IS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW-END VFR STRATUS DECK MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THE STRIPE OF CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TWIN PORTS TO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WI IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG SO KEPT A MORE
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AT KDLH TERMINALS FOR THE TIME BEING. EMBEDDED
FLURRIES IN THE ARROWHEAD AND IRON RANGE AREAS LAST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THE EASTWARD PUSH HAS ALLOWED THE PREVIOUS
VCSH TO BE REMOVED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES FROM VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
AFTER 17Z TODAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE ANY
MENTIONS IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
FORECAST TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE QUICKLY BECOMING
CALM AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING AT 5-15KTS. GUSTS TO 20KTS
ARE MOST LIKELY FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. WINDS
SUBSIDE TONIGHT, AND REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AT 5-15KTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL TODAY, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, AND SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD
GUST TO 20MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND WHILE WINDS WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH THURSDAY, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN FOR FRIDAY AND WE MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA/LE
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