144
FXUS63 KDLH 062336
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND
THURSDAY, AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A COOL START TO MAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE
PERCENTILES NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE CLIMATOLOGY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS
WELL. FOR TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE
FORECAST WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DEPENDING ON WHAT LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINS, A FEW LOCATIONS COULD (20-30% CHANCE)
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY, A STRONGER IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN DURING THE MORNING GIVEN THE COOL START TO
THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
EASES SOME ALOFT AND THE COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES INTO
CANADA. FRIDAY COULD HAVE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE PARTNERS ON FUEL
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FIRE BEHAVIOR.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND RETURN OF A CHILLY MAY AIRMASS ARRIVES
THIS WEEKEND TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE
SEEN SO FAR THIS MONTH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS IMPULSES IN CYCLONIC FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO RELENT SOME
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT A WARM UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (30-50% CHANCE) IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CEILINGS WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KFT ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
AGAIN THURSDAY. GIVEN THE SCATTERED COVERAGE, CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IS LESS THAN 20%. OPTED FOR VCSH
FOR NOW. HYR AND DLH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, LOCALLY
HIGHER WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND FROM
GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS. WAVES OF 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED
FROM GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS FOR MOST
ZONES, THE EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHWEST AT 15-20 KTS FROM TACONITE
HARBOR TO GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 2-4 FEET FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
PARTLY SUNNY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 8-10 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...PA
FIRE WEATHER...PA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page