110
FXUS63 KDLH 071129
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
629 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
- DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT (30-60% CHANCE) AND RAIN
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY (40-60% CHANCE).
- THE COOL AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THEN TEMPERATURES WARM UP NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST THIS
MORNING, ATTENDANT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CAN BE FOUND BEHIND IT OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. AS A RESULT, WE'RE LOOKING AT A PRETTY QUIET WEATHER
MORNING.
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR IN SOME WAYS TO YESTERDAY. A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
TODAY, AND ALONG WITH THAT, WE WILL STILL HAVE THE COOL WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY. COUPLE
THESE TWO FEATURES AND WE MAY HAVE A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO DULUTH TO HAYWARD AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. ANY SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PROBABLY WON'T
STICK, AND P-TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN/GRAUPEL
LATE-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN WITH A
STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT TO IT (MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE-
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON). DESPITE TALKING ABOUT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS, WE WILL HAVE A WELL-MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE, AND THERE
IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL TO NEAR-
CRITICAL LEVELS AROUND 25% THIS AFTERNOON FOR A FEW PLACES. THIS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES. AT THIS TIME,
THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW RH COULD FALL GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS, SO WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A DRIER DAY YET WITH WINDS A LITTLE
BLUSTERY FROM THE WEST AS WELL (GUSTING TO AROUND 15-20 MPH).
RH IS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 25% FOR MANY PLACES, AND NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FOR MANY
PLACES.
A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO BRING SOME RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION (30-60% CHANCE),
THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT (LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH) AND THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.
MORE DRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY-MONDAY, AND THERE COULD BE
SOME NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A COOL START TO MAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE
PERCENTILES NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE CLIMATOLOGY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A FEW
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS
WELL. FOR TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE
FORECAST WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DEPENDING ON WHAT LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINS, A FEW LOCATIONS COULD (20-30% CHANCE)
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY, A STRONGER IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION, SUPPORTING A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN DURING THE MORNING GIVEN THE COOL START TO
THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
EASES SOME ALOFT AND THE COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES INTO
CANADA. FRIDAY COULD HAVE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH. WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE PARTNERS ON FUEL
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FIRE BEHAVIOR.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND RETURN OF A CHILLY MAY AIRMASS ARRIVES
THIS WEEKEND TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE
SEEN SO FAR THIS MONTH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS IMPULSES IN CYCLONIC FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO RELENT SOME
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT A WARM UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (30-50% CHANCE) IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY, EVEN AS A STRATUS DECK EXITS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND A FEW STREAMERS OF STRATUS WORK THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AFTER WESTERLY WINDS MIX OUT LATE MORNING
TODAY, A DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SO THE ONGOING PROB30S AND VCSH
REMAIN. SKY COVERAGE DECREASES 00-06Z THIS EVENING WITH
CONTINUED VFR AND CALM WINDS LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AROUND GRAND PORTAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, AND GUSTS FROM
20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AROUND GRAND PORTAGE DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. GUSTS FROM 15 TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF THE NORTH SHORE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN A BIT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THERE ARE A FEW DAYS OF CONCERN COMING UP FOR FIRE WEATHER.
TODAY IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE WE WILL HAVE A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH WHICH MAY KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AROUND. HOWEVER, SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET VERY
CLOUDY, AND RH COULD FALL INTO THE 25-30% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON HOW LOW RH MAY ACTUALLY FALL.
ON FRIDAY, DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME BLUSTERY
WEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE FOR GUSTS. MIN RH IS LIKELY
TO FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE, AND WITH THIS, NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
MORE DRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH RH FALLING TO AROUND
30% AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KT.
ON MONDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY, AND WHILE SPEEDS MAY BE
LIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH RH FALLING TO 20-30%, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page