324
FXUS63 KDLH 250553
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY WITH TUESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM CRANE LAKE TO GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH TO ASHLAND
WI. THIS INCLUDES THE ARROWHEAD, TWIN PORTS, AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH SHORE. HAIL UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE (1.25 INCH) AND
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM SEVERE STORMS.
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE ND/SD BORDER NEAR ABR AS OF 25.04Z PER GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARED TO BE DIGGING
AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER
WESTERN MN. THAT FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO ENHANCED ASCENT MOVING
INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GOES-EAST
BAND 13 IMAGERY REVEALED A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS FROM NEAR
THE ND/SD/MN BORDER EAST INTO CENTRAL MN. GENERALLY CLOUD TOPS
WERE MAINTAINING THEIR THERMAL APPEARANCE WITH SHORT PERIODS OF
COOLING/WARMING FEATURED.
THE LATEST (25.02Z) RAP INDICATES INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX COMBO BY 25.07Z. A
SECONDARY LLJ SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MB AHEAD OF A
LARGER VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO IN THE 25.07Z TO 25.09Z
TIMEFRAME. MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARD 600-1200 J/KG BY
25.09Z OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALTHOUGH THE
AXIS OF THE STRONGEST MUCAPE VALUES IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST
OF THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HAIL GROWTH. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS LIMITS STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION.
VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM OF THE PROFILE YIELDS FAVORABLE
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WITH BACKING WINDS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 KM AND
AN ELONGATED HODOGRAPH ABOVE 3 KM. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE MAY BE PRESENT WITH STORMS, THOUGH THE
ADDITIONAL ASCENT PROVIDED BY PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS WILL BE
MAXIMIZED BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. SMALL HAIL OF PEA TO PENNY-
SIZE SEEMS MOST LIKELY FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODEST CONVECTION PERCOLATING
OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY ABOUT 25.09Z AND ADVANCING EASTWARD
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY AROUND 12Z. A SECONDARY AREA OF
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO AROUND THAT TIME. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY 11 AM-12 PM TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
QUITE THE SUMMER TIME SET UP WE ARE GETTING INTO FOR THE NORTHLAND.
THIS MORNING WE HAD SOME WEAK CLUSTERS OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MN ON THE EDGE OF A WEAK 925MB LOW LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS
HAVE LOST A LOT OF STRENGTH AS WE'VE MOVED INTO THE MID DAY POINT
BUT THEIR LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INTERACTIONS FROM OTHER
LAKE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE A LASTING EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OVERALL SCHEME FOR TODAY BOASTS AN IMPRESSIVE WARMING TREND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS STREAMING BACK INTO THE NORTHLAND. NOT A STRONG
MOISTURE FEED AT THE MOMENT BUT PWATS CLIMB TO 0.50-0.75" WHICH IS
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES. INSTABILITY
CLIMBS TO AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 30 KTS. WE ARE LACKING SYNOPTIC FORCING AS SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE REGION REMAINS ABUNDANT. DESPITE THIS, DIURNALLY PROCESSES
INTERMINGLING WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES STAND THE CHANCE OF ALLOWING A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
STEEP SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES TO NICKELS. ADDITIONALLY, TODAY
MARKS THE START OF A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S WITH COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT:
ANOTHER NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH THE
NOSE OF THE JET NUDGING ITS WAY INTO OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
MUCAPE WILL BE AROUND 500 J/KG WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. BULK SHEAR ALSO REMAINS ON THE FRINGE OF IDEAL SPEEDS
CLOCKING IN AROUND 30 KTS. WE WILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT COULD PROVIDE A BOOST TO
SYNOPTIC FORCING HELPING STORMS TO GROW STRONGER. AT THIS TIME
THOUGH THE BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WHERE SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OUTLINED FOR PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS A SECONDARY THREAT. A FEW OF THE LATEST HIGH RES RUNS ARE
HIGHLIGHTING A FEW CELLS MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN PORTS,
BUT THEY DON'T LOOK TO HAVE QUITE THE JUICE NECESSARY TO WARRANT AN
EXPANSION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
MONDAY:
MONDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NW WI AS THE
NOCTURNAL JET SETTLES DOWN. THE DAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. WE WILL ALSO SEE A DEEPER POOL
OF MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS START TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THIS ADDED FUEL WILL BOOST OUR
MLCAPE TO OVER 1000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF ONTARIO IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PROVIDING A BOOST TO LIFT THAT MAY
OVERCOME ANY CAPPING THAT WILL BE IN PLAY FROM THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND BEING A SECONDARY
THREAT. TIMING WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT
EARLY ESTIMATES WOULD LIGHT UP NORTHERN MN AFTER 3PM WITH THE
WINDOW FOR SEVERE CLOSING AFTER 10PM. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, SPC
HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO THE
SOUTH SHORE.
TUESDAY:
NOT MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT STALLS OUT
MONDAY NIGHT AND WE REVERSE THE TIDES WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
BACK NORTH. TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR LOOKS TO BE OUR HOTTEST DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW 90S ON TAP. DECENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT THE LAKE BREEZE FROM PENETRATING TOO FAR
INLAND. THIS WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL SPORT SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID ASCENT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME RIDGE RUNNERS
ABLE TO BOOST SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING AS A 500MB RIDGE SEES A FEW
IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH. PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THE RUNNERS REMAIN IN HIGH VARIANCE BETWEEN THE 12Z SUITE OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, THE BEST BULK SHEAR MAY
BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY CORRIDOR.
FOR NOW, WE DO NOT HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ARE
CARRYING 20-40% FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MID WEEK - END OF THE WORK WEEK:
ON WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO RETREAT TO THE EDGES OF
OUR CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SINKS INTO THE MIDWEST. IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FLEX ITS MUSCLES AND SPREAD COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION VIA ITS LAKE BREEZE. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THIS STABLE AIR
MANAGES TO PERMEATE ACROSS THE REGION WE MAY HAVE SOME VERY LIMITED
COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THE EARLY PARTS OF FRIDAY LEADING TO A
SIMILAR SET UP AS WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW FROM THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE DOESN'T LOOK TO IMPACT THE REGION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. AT
WHICH POINT WE MAY SEE A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PENDING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE CURRENT 06-08Z PERIOD
NEAR BRD WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS
HIB/DLH, BUT POTENTIAL THERE IS ONLY 30% OR LESS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD TO HYR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE WEAKENING LOW- LEVEL JET
TOWARDS 15Z. ANY STORMS MOVING DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL COULD
BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. THIS
AFTERNOON, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWEST
ONTARIO WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY
DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTH SHORE IN THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. STORM INITIATION
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF INL, SO THE WINDOW OF
STORM POTENTIAL THERE WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT HIB, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN STORM POTENTIAL TOWARDS
DLH WITH LATER ARRIVAL TIMING TOWARDS THE EVENING. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, HAIL, AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IF ANY AFTERNOON STORMS MOVE DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS HAVE HELPED TO ERODE THE
WIDESPREAD FOG THAT RULED THE LAKE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.
THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO ENVELOPE THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING A LINE OF STORMS MAY ENTER FROM
THE ARROWHEAD AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
TODAY MARKS THE START OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE NORTHLAND WITH
TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 80S AND SOME 90S FOR TUESDAY. MIN RHS WILL PROVE TO BE A
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
PROMOTE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WON'T BE EXPECTING BONE DRY CONDITIONS BUT
AREAS OF 25% CAN'T BE RULED OUT. MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF
INCREASED GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON THAT TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT FORECASTING OVERLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THAT WOULD PROMPT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MONDAY, MAY 25:
RECORD FORECAST
KINL: 88/1919 86
KBRD: 90/2018 88
KHIB: 87/2010 84
TUESDAY, MAY 26:
RECORD FORECAST
KBRD: 92/2018 90
KHIB: 88/1978 87
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
TUESDAY, MAY 26:
RECORD FORECAST
KASX: 60/1988 57
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...HUYCK
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
CLIMATE...BRITT
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