030
FXUS63 KDLH 251136
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW 90S POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A PORTION OF THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HAIL UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE (1.25 INCH)
AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM SEVERE
STORMS.
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT:
A VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED NEAR
ND/SD/MN BORDER 08Z PER GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARED TO BE DIGGING AHEAD OF THE
VORT MAX WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER WESTERN MN.
THAT FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO ENHANCED ASCENT OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 12Z. AT 0830Z REGIONAL
RADAR AND GOES-EAST BAND 13 TEMPERATURES REVEALED A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX OVER
BRAINERD TO NEAR ISLE TO NEAR BETHEL MN. EXPECT THIS WEAK
CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ADVANCE
SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THESE STORMS SEEMS TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE DUE TO
THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IOWA INTERCEPTING THE FEED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WAS FEATURED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST ANGLE. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF A SECONDARY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA WILL ALLOW THE
PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST WHILE SLOWLY BECOMING LESS INTENSE WITH
TIME. THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
THE LATEST (25.07Z) RAP INDICATES INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX COMBO OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. IT SEEMS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LLJ IS MORE LIMITED THAN THE RAP SUGGESTS. THUS MODEST MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THE EXISTING
STORMS. IT'S UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE STRONGER CONVECTION WITH THESE
FEATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SMALL HAIL UP TO HALF-INCH
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST
THREATS THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO UPPER 80S, EXCEPT
OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S. "MODERATE"
HEAT RISK VALUES ARE FORECAST TODAY FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THOSE VALUES ARE BEING DRIVING
PRIMARILY BY THE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
MODEST DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO THE MIDDLE 80S. THUS
AS OF THIS TIME, HEAT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR NECESSARY. THAT
COULD CHANGE IF TEMPERATURES SOAR ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES.
IN COMBINATION WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, DEEP MIXING IS
FORECAST WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST OF MINNESOTA. THOSE LOW RH
VALUES ARE DEPENDENT ON GOOD MIXING. IF CLOUDS FROM MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST, THE RH VALUES WILL BE BUOYED HIGHER.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE BRAINERD LAKES.
A COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL STALL OUT OVERNIGHT OVER
THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MODEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO
35 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION FOR ANY
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HODOGRAPHS FEATURE
FAVORABLE CURVATURE IN THE LOWEST 6 KM FOR RIGHT-MOVING
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WON'T BE THE MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS WITH VALUES OF -6.5 TO -7 C/KM.
GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS, IT SEEMS THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO HALF-DOLLAR (1.25
INCH) DIAMETER AND PERHAPS A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH.
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE 6-8 PM
TIMEFRAME. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THEY MOVE
OUT OF THE NORTHLAND BY MIDNIGHT-2 AM.
TUESDAY:
A CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
BOUNDARY WON'T MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY. A 300 MB JET STREAK
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL GENERATE BROAD MODEST SUBSIDENCE.
AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AMIDST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KNOTS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. THE WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED AND SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH
WILL THEN TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THE AREA WHERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BECOMES LARGER IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE DIFFUSE
NATURE OF THE FORCING BY THAT TIME.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH WELL
INLAND DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S FOR AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW TO UPPER
80S FARTHER INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE BREEZE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF MN/WI HIGHWAY 70
(ESSENTIALLY PINE CITY TO WINTER TO PHILLIPS).
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL SEE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WEDNESDAY WITH A PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
FORECAST. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND MAY TOUCH OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE ALL BUT
DISSIPATED AS OF 1130Z. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE AT INL AND HYR
BEFORE NOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM FOR TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. KEPT PROB30 MENTIONS FOR THE THUNDER
CHANCES. FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE (1 INCH IN
DIAMETER), OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING, AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL
POSE A RISK TO SMALLER VESSELS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS IS FORECAST SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 80S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 80S IN
THE ARROWHEAD. TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. MIN RHS WILL PROVE TO BE A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PROMOTE INCREASED DEWPOINTS
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS
ALSO A 10-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS FROM
STORMS WILL LIMIT MIXING. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH RH LESS THAN 25% IS FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE BRAINERD
LAKES TODAY. IF CLOUDS AND STORMS ARE MORE SPARSE THAN FORECAST,
THE AREA OF SUB-25% RH WILL BE LARGER. IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS
THAN FORECAST, RHS MAY NOT DROP TO 25%. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
NEAR-CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE FORECAST OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD. THESE LOW
RH VALUES WILL BE CONTINGENT ON LIMITED CLOUDS AND STORM
CHANCES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE
LOW 90S FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WINDS TURN
NORTHEASTERLY, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
A PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE WILL MOVE WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON LIMITING TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 80S FARTHER INLAND. DRY RH VALUES
ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
HOT, SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT SEVERAL CLIMATE
SITES. BELOW ARE THE SITES WHERE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THEIR RECORD VALUES.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MONDAY, MAY 25:
FORECAST RECORD
KINL: 86 ........ 88 IN 1919
KBRD: 88 ........ 90 IN 2018
KHIB: 84 ........ 87 IN 2010
TUESDAY, MAY 26:
FORECAST RECORD
KINL: 82 ........ 88 IN 1919
KBRD: 90 ........ 92 IN 2018
KHIB: 86 ........ 88 IN 1978
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
CLIMATE...HUYCK
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