824
FXUS63 KDLH 260532
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH A
FEW VALUES NEAR 90.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A PORTION OF THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HAIL UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE (1.25 INCH)
AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM SEVERE
STORMS.
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN
THE ARROWHEAD, WITHIN AN AREA OF INSTABILITY THAT IS BEGINNING
TO OVERCOME THE CIN THAT IS IN PLACE, MAINLY IN THE ARROWHEAD.
BULK SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST RIGHT NOW, BUT STRONGER WINDS
MOVING IN ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE AS WELL. A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHICH IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA SHOULD
HELP INITIATE CONVECTION, AS IT HAS ALREADY DONE IN ONTARIO. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AND WILL COME
ALONG WITH THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE SHEAR. A
FEW OF THE STORMS TRIGGERED BY THIS FRONT COULD BECOME SEVERE,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS WILL TRACK IN AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION, GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE,
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN AROUND 25 PERCENT IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION NORTH TO
KOOCHICHING COUNT, CREATING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE DRY RH VALUE EXTEND
EAST ALONG THE BORDERLANDS, BUT WITH WEAKER WINDS THERE,
CONCERNS ARE LOWER. HEAT HAS BEEN RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST
ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER, BUT WITH CONVECTION INITIATING AND
CREATING CLOUD COVER, THAT SHOULD COOL BACK OFF SOON. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES COOL OFF FOR
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND STALL, DRAPING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THAT FRONT, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. AS IS TYPICAL, ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THERE. NORTH OF THE
FRONT, VERY DRY AIR WILL ALSO BUILD INTO THE BORDERLANDS, WHERE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT, RESULTING IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL BUILD MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND THE FRONT ITSELF WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ONLY WEAK SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY, SO WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTH OF
THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS STILL FARTHER SOUTH AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS FOR ALL OF THE AREA WILL TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST, AND WITH
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT, SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH 60S AND
LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKE, WHILE FARTHER INLAND AREAS REMAIN HOT
IN THE 80S, THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH.
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY ALONG
WITH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL LAKE
BREEZE ADVANTAGE, KEEPING LAKE-ADJACENT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
WHICH IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THIS IS JUST THE GENERAL
TREND THOUGH, AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS WE MAY GET SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OR WEAK SHORTWAVES TO KICK OFF SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS, PERHAPS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE ENSEMBLES
HAVE US DRY FOR NOW, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO ADD SOME POPS
BACK IN AT SOME POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BEING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
FOG DEVELOPING IN KDLH, KHIB, AND KBRD BY SUNRISE. ONCE DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS, EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE AND CONDITIONS TO BECOME
VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIALLY BE
DEVELOPING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AROUND KBRD AND KHYR
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. FARTHER NORTH, DRY AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE NORTHEAST OF TOFTE,
CAPABLE OF 50 KNOT WINDS AND HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. WINDS VEER
SOUTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT, THEN BACK AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY WITH WAVES UNDER ONE FOOT. WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH GOING INTO
THURSDAY, EVEN AS WINDS REMAIN NORTHEAST.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AFFECT THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION NORTH THROUGH KOOCHICHING COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIVEN BY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 25
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS REACHING 15 TO 20
MPH. ON TUESDAY, THE DRY, NEAR- CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
BORDERLANDS REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
WINDS TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A PROMINENT INLAND
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS, KEEPING THE LAKESIDE COOLER WHILE DRY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT REMAIN POSSIBLE
FURTHER INLAND.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
HOT, SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT SEVERAL CLIMATE
SITES. BELOW ARE THE SITES WHERE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THEIR RECORD VALUES. HAVE ADDED KDLH FOR
REFERENCE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MONDAY, MAY 25:
FORECAST RECORD
KINL: 86 ........ 88 IN 1919
KBRD: 88 ........ 90 IN 2018
KHIB: 84 ........ 87 IN 2010
KDLH: 81 ........ 89 IN 2018
TUESDAY, MAY 26:
FORECAST RECORD
KINL: 82 ........ 88 IN 1919
KBRD: 90 ........ 92 IN 2018
KHIB: 86 ........ 88 IN 1978
KDLH: 80 ........ 92 IN 2018
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE
CLIMATE...LE
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