868
FXUS63 KDLH 280537
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS AGAIN THURSDAY.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FRIDAY WILL SEE POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HEAT, AND HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE
CREATING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT BEACHES AROUND THE TWIN
PORTS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AS WINDS EASE SLIGHTLY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
ON THURSDAY, A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS HIGH
PRESSURE SAGS CLOSER TO THE REGION. SKIES WILL STAY SUNNY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND, WHILE
THE LAKESIDE STAYS IN THE 60S. LIGHTER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED, BUT ANOTHER PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH AND BRINGS A HOT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY CONTINUE TO TREND UP ACROSS THE AREA,
BRINGING SUMMER-LIKE HEAT WITH RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGHS.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND,
AND EVEN LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE WILL WARM INTO THE 80S.
BECAUSE OF THESE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, A FEW HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. THIS EXTREME HEAT COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT WILL MAINTAIN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5 MPH.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO, SHIFTING OUR WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY. THIS TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE ANOTHER
STRONG LAKE BREEZE, DROPPING LAKESIDE HIGHS INTO THE 60S WHILE
INLAND SPOTS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS SWIMMING AND BOATING CONDITIONS ON LAKE SUPERIOR AS
WELL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. BY
SUNDAY, HOT AND PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH INLAND
HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 80S, ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND A CONTINUING MINOR CHANCE FOR LATE-DAY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE REGION STAYS UNDER
A STATIC RIDGE PATTERN THAT KEEPS CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS
REMAINING WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BLOW
FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT LIGHT SPEEDS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BRING A MINOR 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, BUT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION GREATER THAN A HUNDREDTH OR TWO IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID- WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FOR
TODAY. AS OF 28.05Z WINDS WERE LIGHT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE 7 TO 15 DEGREES. FOG MAY DEVELOP IF WINDS GO CALM FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THINK THE FOG POTENTIAL IS LIMITED AND THUS I
LEFT A VFR FORECAST IN PLACE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEADING TO STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 5 FEET. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AND LARGEST WAVES ARE IN THE SOUTHWEST ARM AND
NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND AREAS SURROUNDING THE APOSTLE ISLANDS,
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS
EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BUILD AGAIN ON THURSDAY BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING ARE LEADING TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT NEAR LEECH LAKE
AND NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY. THE LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO MAKING
ITS WAY FURTHER INLAND TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND UP TO 18 MPH AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH, CREATING NEAR- CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BRING SIMILAR DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY
LEVELS BELOW 25 PERCENT AND RECORD HEAT IN THE 80S AND 90S,
THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEARING DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT SEVERAL CLIMATE SITES. AS OF THIS
MORNING HIBBING IS FORECAST TO BREAK THEIR RECORD BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. BELOW ARE THE SITES WHERE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THEIR RECORD VALUES.
FRIDAY, MAY 29:
FORECAST RECORD
-------- ------
DULUTH: 85 ........ 87 IN 1986
HIBBING: 91 ........ 88 IN 1999 AND 2006
I. FALLS: 91 ........ 92 IN 1919
BRAINERD: 91 ........ 94 IN 2018
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
CLIMATE...KML
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