162
FXUS63 KDLH 280840 CCA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
CORRECTED FOR SMALL SWIM RISK WORDING CHANGE IN KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY. RIP CURRENT RISK IS "MODERATE" AS OF
THIS MORNING.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- FRIDAY WILL SEE POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING HEAT, AND A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
SYNOPSIS:
A COMPLEX SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT
WAS EVIDENT ON GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
A PSEUDO-REX BLOCK WAS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
COMPRISED OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CA/NV BORDER AND A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A NEARLY POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH
WAS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW HAD THE APPEARANCE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH TROUGHS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF
THE CONTINENT. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE SLOWLY
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOWARD
THE ARCTIC BY 00Z SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
TODAY AND FRIDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CREATE A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. WIND AND WAVES
YESTERDAY WERE NOT AS HIGH AS EXPECTED AND THINK TODAY MAY BE
SIMILAR. THUS WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR
THE TWIN PORTS. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO RE-EVALUATE IF WINDS
AND WAVES ARE TRENDING HIGHER THAN FORECAST. A PROMINENT LAKE
BREEZE IS FORECAST AGAIN TODAY WHICH WILL SET UP A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO WEST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS TODAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR THE WATER AND THE LOW
TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST
OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LAKE BREEZE AND WILL TURN TO BE FROM
THE LAKE IN THE WAKE OF THE LAKE BREEZE.
AHEAD OF THE LAKE BREEZE, DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL
PUSH AFTERNOON RH VALUES INTO THE 20-35% RANGE. NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 25% BEHIND THE
LAKE BREEZE AFTER AN INITIAL INCREASE IN RH AS THE BOUNDARY
PASSES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND AREAS AFFECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER WITH RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED. SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
SHORE AND IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FARTHER INLAND. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE PUSHES HEAT RISK AND AND WBGT VALUES
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
WHILE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHLAND, LOW RH VALUES ARE FORECAST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
MINIMUM VALUES OF 20-30%. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE AND
INLAND ARROWHEAD WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE WILL LIMIT MIXING WILL
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES OF 30-40%.
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE IS FORECAST WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD OVER
THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE
COOL FRONT AND THE LAKE BREEZE WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE (5-15%)
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S FARTHER INLAND. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL CREATE LOW RH VALUES.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SLOWLY
PROPAGATES EASTWARD, A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE EQUATORWARD BRANCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
WILL BE A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER WHILE
REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S
FARTHER INLAND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FOR
TODAY. AS OF 28.05Z WINDS WERE LIGHT AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WERE 7 TO 15 DEGREES. FOG MAY DEVELOP IF WINDS GO CALM FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. THINK THE FOG POTENTIAL IS LIMITED AND THUS I
LEFT A VFR FORECAST IN PLACE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 2
FEET. WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER VESSELS PARTICULARLY NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. A
PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE WELL INLAND
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE DEEP MIXING
AND ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP TO 20-35% FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZE THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN
RH VALUES BEFORE THEY DROP AGAIN. THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE INTO THE INLAND ARROWHEAD. LOW
RH VALUES BELOW 25% ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EAST OF
A LINE FROM NEAR ASHLAND TO GLIDDEN TO PHILLIPS. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH
VALUES TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD
WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIMIT DRYING. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. A BACKDOOR (WESTWARD MOVING)
COLD FRONT AND A PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE SATURDAY WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND THOUGH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY. HIBBING
IS FORECAST TO BREAK THEIR RECORD BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND
INTERNATIONAL FALLS IS FORECAST TO TIE THEIR RECORD. BELOW ARE
THE SITES WHERE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN 4 DEGREES
OF THEIR RECORD VALUES.
FRIDAY, MAY 29:
FORECAST RECORD
-------- ------
DULUTH: 85 ........ 87 IN 1986
HIBBING: 91 ........ 88 IN 1999 AND 2006
I. FALLS: 92 ........ 92 IN 1919
BRAINERD: 90 ........ 94 IN 2018
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
CLIMATE...HUYCK
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