732
FXUS63 KDLH 282340
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY DUE TO
DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF DULUTH AND
SUPERIOR.
- FRIDAY WILL BE VERY HOT WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- NORTHEAST GALES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TWIN PORTS STARTING
FRIDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST
OF THE NORTHLAND WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 70S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 80S INLAND. A PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR, POSSIBLY CREATING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND A
HIGHER RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ALSO DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE, CREATING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DRY AIR SHOULD MITIGATE ANY
FOG FORMATION.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE NEAR-RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S, THE LATEST DATA INDICATES WE WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. DESPITE MISSING THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA, IT WILL STILL BE A VERY HOT AND DRY DAY, PROLONGING
OUR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE SPC HAS A GENERAL
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY - MOST LIKELY DUE TO HEAT AND
INSTABILITY, BUT ALSO DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAUSING A
TRIGGERING MECHANISM IN THE HEAT. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA, CAUSING A SHARP SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. WE MAY SEE SOME GALES DEVELOP NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, CREATING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S, THOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL STILL REACH THE 80S.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S FURTHER INLAND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK FROM
THE STRONGER GUSTS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPS OUR TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS CONSISTENTLY REACHING THE 80S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, WHICH WILL INTRODUCE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
BOTH DAYS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY, GUSTING
TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY, MAINTAINING OUR WARM TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR THE
LAKE AND 80S INLAND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY, GUSTING TOWARD 20 MPH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HOVER AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY, NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MEANING DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LARGELY PERSIST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD UNDER LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION (10-20% CHANCE) AND ARROWHEAD (20-35%
CHANCE) FRIDAY MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING. OPTED TO KEEP ANY
SHOWER MENTIONS OUT OF ANY TAFS FOR THE MOMENT THOUGH GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA AND BEING
WELL-EAST OF KHIB AT THIS TIME.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL KEEP WAVES IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE FOR WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A SHARP
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS TO SURGE, AND WE MAY
SEE SOME GALES DEVELOP NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, BUILDING WAVES AND CREATING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND A PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE WILL DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER,
WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY AGAIN DROPPING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
TODAY AND FRIDAY, BUT A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH
THOUGH THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHILE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE'S STILL NO LARGE SYSTEMS TO SPEAK OF.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...WOLFE
FIRE WEATHER...WOLFE
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