726
FXUS63 KDLH 291117
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
617 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME AREAS SEEING RH VALUES OF 20-25% EACH DAY.
- 10% CHANCE OF NORTHEAST GALES NEAR THE TWIN PORTS THIS EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY DUE TO
BUILDING WAVES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES
OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SYNOPSIS:
A COMPLEX SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT
WAS EVIDENT ON GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
A PSEUDO-REX BLOCK WAS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT
COMPRISED OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CA/NV BORDER AND A NEGATIVELY
TILTED RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW HAD THE APPEARANCE
OF AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE
SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOWARD THE ARCTIC BY
00Z SUNDAY. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY
EVENING. A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL AREAS
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
TODAY AND SATURDAY:
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY AS THE
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DRIFTS
FARTHER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHLAND WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE
TUCKED CLOSE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
INTO THE TWIN PORTS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE ARROWHEAD WILL SEE MORE OF
A LAKE INFLUENCE DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S ARE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE LAKE.
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL
WORK AGAINST THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS TODAY. DETERMINISTIC NBM
MAX TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN OUR FORECAST. DAY SHIFT
WILL BE BETTER POSITIONED TO ADJUST TEMPS UP OR DOWN BASED ON
THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS ONCE THE SUN RISES. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE COMBINATION OF HEAT RISK AND FORECAST
WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
GO FORWARD WITH AN ADVISORY.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT A 10% CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING
AND A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THAT BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED TO 500-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS. ANY STORMS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND SLOW-MOVING.
BY THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THIS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WAVES WILL
BUILD NEAR THE TWIN PORTS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
FORECAST SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE
COMBINATION BACKDOOR COOL FRONT AND A PROMINENT LAKE BREEZE IN
PLAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S WELL INLAND. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL KICK OFF A FEW STORMS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RH VALUES OF 20-35%
WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK:
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S FURTHER INLAND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE STRONGER GUSTS SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND. DRY
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPS OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS CONSISTENTLY REACHING
THE 80S ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE WILL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE, WHICH WILL INTRODUCE A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH DAYS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
BREEZY, GUSTING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DRY RH VALUES WILL
PERSIST DESPITE THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE GENERAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY, MAINTAINING OUR WARM TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR
THE LAKE AND 80S INLAND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
SLIGHTLY, GUSTING TOWARD 20 MPH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
HOVER AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY, NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MEANING DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LARGELY PERSIST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STAGNANT
PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CLOSED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIMITING THE WEST-EAST
PROGRESSION OF THE FLOW. THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE
CONTINENT DE-AMPLIFIES AND PERMIT A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
PASS OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING NEAR BRD OR HIB. DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTIONS OF PRECIP IN THIS FORECAST. IF A SHOWER OR STORM PASSES
OVER THE TERMINAL, EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY
IN RAIN.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING SUPPORT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. BY THIS EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO BACK NORTHEAST WHILE SPEEDS AND GUSTS INCREASE. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF GALES TO 35 KNOTS NEAR THE TWIN PORTS SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, BUILDING
WAVES AND CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WIND AND WAVES DIMINISH FOR SUNDAY BEFORE
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TODAY. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH TODAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-35% RANGE WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER
THE BRAINERD LAKES NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO THE
WESTERN BOUNDARY WATERS. A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVANCE
SLOWLY INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND WILL BACK WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY IN ITS WAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
ARROWHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY. WINDS BACK
NORTHEASTERLY AND GUSTS INCREASE, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY RHS WILL BE A CONCERN EACH DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL OF RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY. HIBBING
IS FORECAST TO BREAK THEIR RECORD BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND DULUTH ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN 1
DEGREE OF THEIR RECORD. BELOW ARE THE SITES WHERE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THEIR RECORD VALUES. HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHWARD MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
THESE VALUES.
FRIDAY, MAY 29:
FORECAST RECORD
-------- ------
DULUTH: 86 ........ 87 IN 1986
HIBBING: 92 ........ 88 IN 1999 AND 2006
I. FALLS: 91 ........ 92 IN 1919
BRAINERD: 91 ........ 94 IN 2018
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ140>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
FIRE WEATHER...HUYCK
CLIMATE...HUYCK
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