777
FXUS63 KDLH 292312
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT IN THE TWIN PORTS CREATE LIKELY
GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH INTO THE HEAD OF THE LAKE.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY FOR THE
BEACHES OF DULUTH AND SUPERIOR DUE TO BUILDING WAVES AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEARLY EVERY
DAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS BELOW 25 PERCENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. WE ARE BARELY
NICKING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE HELD OFF
ON AN ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
WORKING AGAINST THE HEATING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, IT WILL FEEL
VERY HOT. HI-REZ MODELS ARE POPPING OFF ISOLATED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMIZES WHICH MAY ALSO EAT INTO
THE HEATING. TONIGHT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
REGION, WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY, ESPECIALLY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, THAT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. HI-REZ MODELS ARE POPPING OFF ISOLATED
STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, STAYING IN THE 60S, WHILE
INLAND AREAS STILL REACH THE 80S. THE BIG STORY TOMORROW WILL BE
THE WINDS ON THE LAKE. WE HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
THE TWIN PORTS LARGELY BASED ON THE HRRR AND HREF AND GUT MODELS
WITH OUR GENERAL BIAS TO GO TOO LOW OVER THE WATERS.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED NEARLY EVERY DAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS
BELOW 25 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
KEEPING SUNDAY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE AND 80S
FURTHER INLAND. NO WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST.
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPS OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN MAINTAINS A STUBBORN RIDGE, THOUGH A FEW WEAK RIPPLES
COULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. WE ARE
CLOSELY MONITORING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AS THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM
JUNE 6TH THROUGH THE 8TH. THE STAGNANT HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STORY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER INCREASINGLY GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE BIG LAKE LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
BORDERLANDS TONIGHT AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS THOSE
INCREASING WINDS LATE TONIGHT MOVES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. AT
THIS TIME THOUGH CHANCES ARE 10% OR LESS FOR ANY TERMINALS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT,
CAUSING NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE SHARPLY. WE HAVE UPGRADED
TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE TWIN PORTS LARGELY BASED ON THE HRRR
AND HREF AND GUT MODELS WITH OUR GENERAL BIAS TO GO TOO LOW OVER
THE WATERS. GALES TO 35 KNOTS AND BUILDING WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
BEFORE NORTHEAST FLOW RETURNS MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER NEARLY EVERY DAY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLS BELOW 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, BUT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, INCREASING GUSTS
DOWNWIND AND IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ140>142.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LSZ146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...WOLFE
FIRE WEATHER...WOLFE
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