975
FXUS63 KDLH 302325
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GALES AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE TWIN PORTS
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NEAR- CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RHS
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES DON'T RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN WE
SWING BACK TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS STREAMING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
STILL LOOKING AT A WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM LAKE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S BEFORE A LAKE
BREEZE SWEEPS IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BREEZE WILL QUICKLY
REDUCE THOSE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES ON THE HORIZON THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK. AN OMEGA BLOCK CONTORTS ITSELF A BIT OVER THE TIME PERIOD
WITH THE NORTHLAND REMAINING ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF ACTIVITY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING LINGERING OVER THE REGION. A FAIRLY CLASSIC SET UP
FOR THE NORTHLAND ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S BEFORE A LAKE BREEZE COMES
PLOWING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED CONCERN FOR SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS
WE DRY OUT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS. SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY THERE IS SOME LOW CHANCE (15-30%) POPS ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES AS A SHORTWAVE PIVOTS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AT THIS TIME BUT SOME OF THE CAMS WANT TO FORM A
LINE OF SHOWERS.
MIDWEEK:
CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1" WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
BOOSTING DEWPOINTS TO ABOVE 60F. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD BACK WITH
THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE INCREASING THE CHANCES (40-60%) FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH
SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A BIT TOO
SOON TO REALLY NARROW DOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL JET INTO NORTHERN MN ON
WEDNESDAY. PAIRED WITH THE INSTABILITY COULD BRING ABOUT SOME
STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
BREEZY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 10KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A GUST TO 18KTS AT BRD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LAKE SUPERIOR IS SEEING SOME
VERY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. GALE WARNING FOR THE TWIN PORTS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THIS EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN TONIGHT
WITH WAVES FOLLOWING SUIT. VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE LAKE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE
AGAIN.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN
GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLAY ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RHS WILL DROP TO
BELOW 25% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ140>142-146>148-150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ143>145.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...BRITT
FIRE WEATHER...BRITT
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