079
FXUS63 KDLH 311928
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
228 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TO HOT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL
PLACES THROUGH MID-WEEK DUE TO HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
POSSIBLE AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CURRENT WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY:
AS HAS BEEN THE TREND FOR SEVERAL DAYS, THE WEATHER IS PRETTY
DRY AND QUIET OUT THERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS FALLEN BELOW 25
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT OUT THERE, SO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TO RED FLAG CRITERIA, BUT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES, A RIBBON OF VORTICITY HAS BEEN
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AND EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL THIS SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIGHT, BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND HEAT:
WE WILL STILL BE LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW, MOST PLACES WILL SEE A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OF WARM TO
HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WE CAN EXPECT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RESULTING IN NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE BLUSTERY ON MONDAY,
BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AND THUS
DISPLACED FROM WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE,
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PATTERN CHANGE WEDNESDAY:
A CLOSED LOW THAT'S EXPECTED TO PARK APPROXIMATELY OVER
SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AND
BRING WITH IT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING SOME MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. AT THIS
POINT, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT SOME GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH
RANGE, BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME VARIABILITY IN AMOUNTS
DUE TO CONVECTION.
DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LIKELY RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME WARM-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A "DIRTY RIDGE"
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
WEAK DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH THAT COULD KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES GOING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE ARE PRETTY FIRMLY SITUATED INTO A
SUMMERTIME PATTERN, SO HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY TO BE COMMON
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS AT BRD WHERE
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS BRINGING SOME CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY TO THE SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE MOST LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE,
RAINFALL IN GENERAL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING MONDAY MORNING AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN SOME CHOPPY WATERS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS, BUT WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERAL REMAIN AROUND A FOOT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OF WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
TUESDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING CRITICAL, BUT WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RH BELOW 25 PERCENT EXPECTED, CONDITIONS WILL
BE NEAR-CRITICAL FOR MANY PLACES.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
MONDAY. NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED, BUT A FEW PLACES COULD PICK
UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING
LIKELY WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO MOST PLACES INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
VARIABLE, BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH FOR SEVERAL PLACES. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. WITH A MORE MOIST
WEATHER PATTERN, RH IN GENERAL IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHER, REDUCING
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CHANCES.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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