281
FNUS73 KDLH 040941
FWSDLH
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIRCH BAY FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
441 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0500 CDT ON JUNE 04.
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.
DISCUSSION
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD VARY, FROM NO ACCUMULATION TO 0.30 INCH.
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, UNLESS THE BURN
SITE IS DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASE, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. AS A
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT
6-8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH FRIDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY MORNING
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5600 KNOT-FT).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 5AM
SKY COVER.......MC
WEATHER COV.....CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW
TSTM COV........SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).40
TEMP............64
RH..............67
20 FT WIND DIR..SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6
20 FT WIND GUST.15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12
SDSPL KT-FT/10006
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (4700-24500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
GOOD (30600-41300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY COVER.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY MCLDY PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 30 30 30 30
TEMP............62 63 68 73 76 78
RH..............78 87 76 62 54 47
20 FT WIND......SW 6 S 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 14 15
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1000 1600 2500 3400 3800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10 S 12 SW 14 SW 14 W 13 W 12
SDSPL KT-FT/10005 11 20 31 37 38
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (18800-26100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(1800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......PC PC PC PC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 30 30 20 20 10 0 0 10 10 0
TEMP............78 77 75 69 66 64 63 61 58 58 56 55
RH..............47 48 52 63 73 78 78 84 90 87 93 96
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W SW W W SW W SW SW W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 2.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W SW SW SW W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
SDSPL KT-FT/100026 19 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4700 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2400 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (2500-13500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
FAIR TO GOOD (24100-40600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT
(59800-77700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO FAIR TO GOOD (24500-42600
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......PC MCR MCR PC PC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10
TEMP............56 60 64 70 74 74 76 77 78 79 80 79
RH..............96 87 75 61 51 51 46 43 40 38 36 38
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 7 9 12 13 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.5 5.4 6.0 6.5 3.0 4.7 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 8 9 10 13 13 14 10 10 12
SDSPL KT-FT/10003 4 5 14 24 41 60 66 78 27 43 25
FORECASTER...HA
REQUESTED BY...JEB BACKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614806.6/DLH
.DELDT 06/04/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JEB.BACKE@USDA.GOV,BRINKMANJ@STLOUISCOUNTYMN.GOV,BENJAMIN_EVANS@FIRENET.GOV,JAYEA@STLOUISCOUNTYMN.GOV
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