122
FXUS63 KDLH 151145
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
- FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE UNDER 500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL SHEAR,
SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE VERTICAL IN STRUCTURE AND PULSEY,
SO INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD BE GOOD FOR
MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, IF THERE WERE ANY. OTHER THAN
SOME SMALL HAIL, BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. LOOKING AHEAD TO MIDWEEK, A SYSTEM WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTH AND LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PART OF THE
REGION. A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS GRADIENT LOOKS TO SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE
NORTHLAND, BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON WHERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, CLOUDS STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS TRENDED RH UP JUST A SMIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HOWEVER, THE HRRR STILL POINTS TO SUB 25 PERCENT
VALUES OVER NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25% ARE COMBINING
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH, KEEPING THE RED FLAG WARNING ACTIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL,
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S. TONIGHT, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS A COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP COMFORTABLY INTO THE 40S.
SUNSHINE WILL KICK OFF THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, BUT
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AS A FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE
DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA. MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS STORMY, BUT
NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED AS THESE SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUOUS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS SETUP WILL BRING MULTIPLE QUICK-MOVING SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA, PROVIDING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, WE KEPT HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN FOR WED INTO THU ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CURRENTLY STATIONED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MAY BEGIN
TO DRIFT EASTWARD. THIS SHIFT WOULD POTENTIALLY TRANSITION OUR
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, INTRODUCING A WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN. AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL, WARMER SUMMERTIME WEATHER AND DRIER CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN AREAS AND
WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE. AFTER SUNSET, MVFR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LOW STRATUS AND MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THIS LOW
FOG AND STRATUS IS LOW AS IT WILL DEPEND ON AREAS GETTING
RAINFALL PRIOR. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST
WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS. THIS HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE AND WAVES OF 2 TO 5 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA, HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER FOR
TONIGHT, BUT NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURN WINDS NORTHEASTERLY FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR TUESDAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. THIS MAY LEAD TO
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT NEAR THE TWIN PORTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, AREAS SEEING RAINFALL MAY
SEE BRIEF, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 30% WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.
UPDATE...BJH
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH
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