579
FXUS63 KDLH 161753
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WITH THESE STORMS
COULD FAVOR A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS OR WEAK LANDSPOUT TORNADOES
TO FORM.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TOTALS FROM 0.5"-1.0" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND, WITH AMOUNTS
DECREASING WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK, THEN
WARMING UP A BIT INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC 20-50% CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY, OTHERWISE
MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THIS MORNING AND TODAY:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONGOING. THE BACK END OF THE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA RIGHT NOW, AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. MOST OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THEY WILL EVENTUALLY
START TO MOVE EAST OF PRICE COUNTY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH
SOME DIURNAL HEATING, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP THERE.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG THOUGH,
THESE SHOULD EASILY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TODAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE 30-35% RANGE FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND INCHING
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND OR BELOW 20 MPH, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY
LOW, BUT NON-ZERO FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS:
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
REGARD TO WEDNESDAY'S SPRING/FALL-LIKE SYSTEM. THE TRACK THIS
STORM TAKES WILL BE PRETTY CRUCIAL FOR WHO DOES AND DOES NOT SEE
MUCH RAIN FROM THIS. WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD SWATCH OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT, FOR THE MOST PART, SHOULD
HOVER IN THE 0.5"-1.0" RANGE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH THE CURRENT TRACK. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS LOCALLY EXCEEDING AN INCH. THE
TRACK HAS MAYBE SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH WHEN LOOKING AT
THE MEAN, BUT THERE'S ENOUGH SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL MEMBERS YET
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES COULD STILL HAPPEN. IMPACT-WISE, WE CAN
GENERALLY USE THE RAIN, SO THIS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL IN THAT
RESPECT. MOST OF THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER IS STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH, BUT IF THERE WAS A
SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH, A FEW PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD SEE
A SMALL CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS (MAINLY PRICE COUNTY).
THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED, SO PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
REST OF TODAY - TONIGHT:
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH SHORE. WINDS ARE ALSO FAIRLY
BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH, THOUGH
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO. MOST OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT DURATION
AND PULSEY IN NATURE DUE TO WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 15-25
KT. WITH THAT SAID, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 300-800 J/KG
OF MLCAPE, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM SET UP A
PARAMETER SPACE WHERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40- 50
MPH. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS LINGERS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED, GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY PASSES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND.
TUESDAY:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN NW WI ON TUESDAY MORNING AND
EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, SO SHOWER AND
ISOLATED NON-SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO END FROM NW TO SE
TUESDAY, WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN NW WI ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE REST OF TUESDAY WILL SHAPE
UP TO BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ALONG WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE LAKE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH
ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY, BUT AGAIN DROP OFF AND BECOME
LIGHT TOWARDS SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY:
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SKIRT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AND
BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (70-100%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US HWY 2
CORRIDOR. THERE WILL TO BE AN AREA OF DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM, SO THE GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SHARPER. PRECIPITATION STARTS AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR TO INITIALLY OVERCOME FIRST. PRECIPITATION THEN
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY AND ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP ON AN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED BASIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
THURSDAY.
AS OF NOW, THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE US HWY 2 CORRIDOR, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1" BEING FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO NW WI.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD REGARDING WHERE THE
SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD OCCUR
IN FAR NORTHERN MN. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THE LARGE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBER SURFACE LOW
TRACKS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND, WHICH WOULD ALSO KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR AND POOL OF ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS ALIGNS WELL
WITH THE AREA OF "MARGINAL" IN THE SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
ALSO BEING SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY
AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
INTO THE TWIN PORTS AREA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE. THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
FOR TWIN PORTS BEACHES, SO A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY - NEXT WEEKEND:
THE GENERAL MID AND UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR FRIDAY INTO THIS COMING
WEEKEND IS FOR RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH, THOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE
MAINTAINED THE PERIODIC 10-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NBM IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT
WARMING IN THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD ALSO PUSH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOW TO UPPER 70S).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT POTENTIAL IS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF HYR. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
AREA. INL AND BRD LOOK TO SEE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FIRST, AND
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS MID TO LATE THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR TO MVFR
VISIBILITY WITH THE RAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT INL/HIB AND IFR AT
DLH/BRD/HYR BY EARLY TO MID-WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF BRD TO HYR, BUT THAT WOULD PRIMARILY BE AFTER THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT,
THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, GUSTY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET GUSTY AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE HEAD OF THE LAKE. WE'LL HAVE ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE
FOR SEEING SOME GALES, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, WE ARE LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED DUE
TO 20-30 KT WIND GUSTS. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REACH 3-5 FT AROUND THE
TWIN PORTS AS WELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE STRONG WINDS AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHTER FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY, EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. MIN RH TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30-35%
RANGE FOR MOST OF THESE PLACES, AND SOME LOCALLY LOWER RH CAN'T
BE RULED OUT (20% CHANCE). WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BLUSTERY FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. WITH THIS FORECAST,
WE ARE JUST SHY OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAY. WE WILL MONITOR IN CASE WINDS END UP BEING HIGHER OR RH
LOWER, BUT GIVEN RECENT RAINS, STEEP DROPS IN RH AREN'T TOO
LIKELY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN UP QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET
WITH RH RECOVERING OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
A RAINY SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY TO
DROP 0.5"-1.0" OF RAIN (PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE). THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS INCHING
INTO EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE MAY BE A FAIRLY SHARP
GRADIENT ROUGHLY ALONG THE US-2 CORRIDOR WHERE NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH RAIN MAY FALL TO THE NORTH (THOUGH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE). THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN,
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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