180
FXUS63 KDLH 170543
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TOTALS FROM 0.5"-1.0" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND, WITH AMOUNTS
DECREASING WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK, THEN
WARMING UP A BIT INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY DRY FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
REST OF TODAY:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NE WI IS EXITING TO OUR EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN NE WI ALSO EXITING TO OUR EAST
BY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR ARE PRESENT. WITH
THAT SAID, THE PRESENCE OF 50-100 J/KG OF 0-3 KM MLCAPE, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, COOLER AIR ALOFT, AND WEAK SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS OR WEAK LANDSPOUT
TORNADOES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
THE TWIN PORTS IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TOWARDS SUNSET. AREAS OUTSIDE OF NW WI AND AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP TO THE UPPER
20S TO 40%, THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF AROUND 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN SPOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOWER RH COULD LEAD
TO POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS, BUT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. RH RECOVERS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TONIGHT - THURSDAY:
A ROBUST FALL-LIKE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE LOW PRESSURE FORECASTS SHOW THE PRESSURE DIPPING
INTO THE 986-992 MB RANGE, BEING UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FORECAST LOW PRESSURE OF LESS THAN
THE 1ST PERCENTILE IN THE NAEFS CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. LATEST
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE 70-100% ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
US HWY 2 CORRIDOR, AND DROP OFF TO 20-50% NORTH TOWARDS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH A WIDESPREAD
0.4-0.8" FORECAST FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN THESE AREAS COMBINED
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND FRONTOGENETIC BANDING,
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED POCKETS UPWARDS OF 1-1.5". RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DIMINISH WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT TOWARDS 0.05-0.25" ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE, AND VERY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
REGARDING THE STORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH-
RESOLUTION AND ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS LARGELY KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND, AND THE SEVERE CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. HOWEVER, AS THE
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY AS FAR NORTH AS PINE
COUNTY, MN, INTO INLAND NW WI, WHICH COULD INTRODUCE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF 300-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE. MODEL 0- 6 KM BULK SHEAR
FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME--10 TO 20 KT-- ALONG WITH
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DOWNDRAFT CAPE. AS SUCH,
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL OR LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE MAJORITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WOULD BE MORE GENERAL
PULSE STORM MODES. PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERS AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LARGELY COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED, NON-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AS
ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, ASIDE FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE MARKED BY SEASONABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAYTIME CONDITIONS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON THURSDAY. STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND BUILDING WAVES TO 3-5 FT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS GIVING A HIGH CONFIDENCE SIGNAL FOR HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TO DEVELOP FOR TWIN PORTS BEACHES, SO A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL VERY LIKELY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY - THIS COMING WEEKEND:
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ENERGY MOVING THROUGH FORECAST TO BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
STORMS ON FRIDAY, WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND MAINLY DRY, BUT 10-20% CHANCES FOR
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE
NORTHLAND ALSO SEES A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5-6 HOURS, BUT THEN
EXPECT RAPID DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND IFR AROUND
12Z AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND MOISTURE TO THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY IMPROVEMENT NOT LIKELY
UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH RAIN AND FOG, AND TEMPORARY
IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT BRD/HYR DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT SOME BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. EXPECT BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL, THEN CALMING DOWN DURING THE
EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
PRIMARILY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP AND BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS FUNNELING
INTO THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INCREASE GUSTS TO 20-30 KT
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A 30% CHANCE
FOR BRIEF GALES NEAR THE TWIN PORTS, EITHER. WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO
INCREASE TO 3-5 FT NEAR THE TWIN PORTS, AS WELL. GIVEN THESE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR SILVER BAY TO THE TWIN PORTS TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG WINDS AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
10-18 KT ON THURSDAY, BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
LOW PRESSURE EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS SOME DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MIN RH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DIPS TO THE
UPPER 20S TO 40% IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT POCKETS OF RH NEAR 25% IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
HIGHER RH IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT WITH RH RECOVERING ABOVE 80%.
A RAINY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS
LIKELY TO BRING 0.4"-0.8" OF RAIN TO THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF UP TO 1-1.5"
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THOSE LOCATIONS, EITHER. THERE MAY BE A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ROUGHLY ALONG THE US-2 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.25" OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY EVEN ONLY SEE
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND 0.10" OF RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD DEVELOP IN PINE COUNTY TO INLAND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL 20-50% CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ON FRIDAY, BUT CONDITIONS BECOME LARGELY RAIN-FREE
THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143-146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR LSZ147-150.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
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