172
FXUS63 KDLH 171147
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
647 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TODAY. MANY
PLACES COULD SEE 0.5"-1.0" OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF US-2 AND LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH.
- COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK, THEN WARMING UP A BIT THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND, THEN A FEW MORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AT TIMES SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
RAIN IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THERE ARE NOT
TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY'S RAIN. THE LOW TRACK
IS LOOKING PRETTY SOLID TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AT
THIS TIME, SO WE WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THIS VERY
SPRING OR FALL-LIKE SYSTEM. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH
PWATS JUST OVER AN INCH ROUGHLY SOUTH OF US-2 WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT TO LESSER PWATS NORTH OF THERE. WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION, BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE TOO EXTREME. SOME FRONTOGENESIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 1.5"-2.0".
FOR MOST IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, A
BROAD 0.5"-1.0" IS STILL LOOKING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY RANGE
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS REALLY LOOKING PALTRY AT THIS TIME. WE
COULD HAVE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN THE RAIN, BUT EVEN WHERE THE
THREAT IS THE HIGHEST DOWN TOWARDS PRICE COUNTY, WE MIGHT BE
ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE. THIS IS REALLY
LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A RAINY DAY NEARLY EVERYWHERE AND THAT'S
THE MAIN THREAT.
EXPECT BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR AND
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY
SWITCHING TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE AND NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL
THEREFORE BE ISSUED FOR GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FROM CANAL
PARK TO WISCONSIN POINT.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
REST OF TODAY:
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NE WI IS EXITING TO OUR EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN NE WI ALSO EXITING TO OUR EAST
BY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR ARE PRESENT. WITH
THAT SAID, THE PRESENCE OF 50-100 J/KG OF 0-3 KM MLCAPE, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, COOLER AIR ALOFT, AND WEAK SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS OR WEAK LANDSPOUT
TORNADOES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.
A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S, THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND
THE TWIN PORTS IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT TOWARDS SUNSET. AREAS OUTSIDE OF NW WI AND AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP TO THE UPPER
20S TO 40%, THOUGH SOME POCKETS OF AROUND 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN SPOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS AND LOWER RH COULD LEAD
TO POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS, BUT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. RH RECOVERS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TONIGHT - THURSDAY:
A ROBUST FALL-LIKE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE LOW PRESSURE FORECASTS SHOW THE PRESSURE DIPPING
INTO THE 986-992 MB RANGE, BEING UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE FORECAST LOW PRESSURE OF LESS THAN
THE 1ST PERCENTILE IN THE NAEFS CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. LATEST
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE 70-100% ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
US HWY 2 CORRIDOR, AND DROP OFF TO 20-50% NORTH TOWARDS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH A WIDESPREAD
0.4-0.8" FORECAST FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. PWATS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN THESE AREAS COMBINED
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND FRONTOGENETIC BANDING,
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED POCKETS UPWARDS OF 1-1.5". RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DIMINISH WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT TOWARDS 0.05-0.25" ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE, AND VERY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
REGARDING THE STORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH-
RESOLUTION AND ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS LARGELY KEEP THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND, AND THE SEVERE CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. HOWEVER, AS THE
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY AS FAR NORTH AS PINE
COUNTY, MN, INTO INLAND NW WI, WHICH COULD INTRODUCE A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF 300-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE. MODEL 0- 6 KM BULK SHEAR
FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS TIME--10 TO 20 KT-- ALONG WITH
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED DOWNDRAFT CAPE. AS SUCH,
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL OR LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE MAJORITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WOULD BE MORE GENERAL
PULSE STORM MODES. PRECIPITATION BECOMES SHOWERS AGAIN AFTER
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LARGELY COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED, NON-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AS
ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, ASIDE FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE MARKED BY SEASONABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAYTIME CONDITIONS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON THURSDAY. STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND BUILDING WAVES TO 3-5 FT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS GIVING A HIGH CONFIDENCE SIGNAL FOR HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TO DEVELOP FOR TWIN PORTS BEACHES, SO A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL VERY LIKELY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY - THIS COMING WEEKEND:
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING ENERGY MOVING THROUGH FORECAST TO BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
STORMS ON FRIDAY, WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND MAINLY DRY, BUT 10-20% CHANCES FOR
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE
NORTHLAND ALSO SEES A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BRING MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN MOVES
OUT. A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
AT BRD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
NO HEADLINE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY
TO THE SOUTH. WIND GUSTS TO 20-30 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4-5
FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR. RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND DECREASE IN SPEED QUICKLY.
INTO THURSDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME A BIT BREEZY WITH GUSTS IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE, BUT HEADLINES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
RAINY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE, WHERE
AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT
ALSO MANY PLACES MAY SEE LESS THAN A TENTH. TOTALS UP TO 1-2"
ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SO RH IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40%. WITH SOME DRIER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND, RH MAY FALL CLOSER TO 30% FOR SOME PLACES, BUT WINDS
SHOULD BE PRETTY TAME WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH AT THE HIGHEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143-146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR LSZ147-150.
UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
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