814
FXUS63 KDLH 171703
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1203 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ENDS WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
-A 40-80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED RAINS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA/BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, ELSEWHERE LESSER AMOUNTS.
-TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING EACH DAY, BUT GENERALLY NEAR TO NORMAL
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50 MOST NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
AN ALMOST FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEXT 6-8
DAYS WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY.
TODAY INTO THURSDAY AN UNUSUALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, DEEPENING TO A
~985MB SURFACE LOW BY THE TIME IT IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON
THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH IS APPROACHING (BUT PROBABLY NOT EXCEEDING)
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDS PER WPC CLIMATOLOGY RECORDS/RESEARCH. AT
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THIS SURFACE LOW IS ROTATING AROUND A NEAR-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST RESULTING IN CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND. AS THE STEADY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES MAY LEAD TO A FEW SPOTS WITH FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WRAP-AROUND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE SPARSE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH WHERE IT DOES RAIN. WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUN HIGHS WILL
WARM UP INTO MID TO UPPER 60S, WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID JUNE.
ON FRIDAY A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST WITH A WEAK WARM TO OCCULUED-LIKE FRONT AT THE SURFACE.
WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS, A
PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND, WITH THE BEST BROAD-SCALE
LIFT IN NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. INSTABILITY WILL
BE WEAK (LESS THAN 400 J/KG MUCAPE) BUT LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING IF DISCRETE STORMS FORM THEY COULD POSE A BRIEF MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK EAST
TOWARDS THE TWIN PORTS/MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON
FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AROUND 40-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER INCH FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MN, PERHAPS EVEN OVER
A HALF INCH (15-25 PERCENT PROB) WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHS JUST A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY, AROUND 70 FOR MOST SPOTS, BUT
CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WEST TO EAST TOWARDS SUNSET.
FOR SATURDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BUILD
EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY AIR MOVING IN. TO THE
NORTH, THE NEAR-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA FINALLY
BREAKS ITS GRIP AS A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND EAST, WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW SOUTH THIS LOW DIGS, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BROAD SUBSIDENCE AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPS TO REINFORCE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WARMER FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S, WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING FROM
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, CAUSING COOLER TEMPS
BY LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE REST OF THE GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY, WITH A PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TRACKS EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
SASKATACHEWAN AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUED WARMING TREND FOR HIGHS - LOW TO MID 70S MON AND TUES -
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST. THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE
GIVEN THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS AND A VERY LIMITED WINDOW TO
ADVECT ANY RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.
BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST, ODDS ARE FOR THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST PER
CPC OUTLOOKS - A WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE
TONIGHT AS THE RAIN EXITS TO THE EAST, THOUGH HYR LOOKS TO STAY
SOCKED INTO THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO EXPECT
LIFR CEILINGS AT DLH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW EMBEDDED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR HYR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS ONLY 20% SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. NO
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING, THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE RAIN, WITH IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH THE FOG AT DLH AND HIB.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TODAY AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY MORNING IS RESULTING
IN INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS BUT GALE FORCE GUSTS UNLIKELY
(PROBABILITY LESS THAN 5 PERCENT). THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO
BUILD TO 3-5 FEET AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT, LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON THURSDAY, NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, POSSIBLY APPROACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS HAVING A 30-50% CHANCE TO REACH
22 KNOTS AT THEIR PEAK.
WEAK WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS AT MOST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, WITH
WINDS OF 10-12 KNOTS. NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON NEXT TUESDAY,
OTHERWISE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 6-10 DAYS. THE DRIEST DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30-40
PERCENT, BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY'S
WELCOME RAINFALL WILL COME WITH JUST A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN NORTH-
CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN, LESSER ALONG/NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND MN
ARROWHEAD, BUT APPROACHING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH WHERE THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH IN PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA (INCLUDING THE BRAINERD LAKES AND CHIPPEWA NATIONAL
FOREST), BUT LOWER AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
AFTER FRIDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, COOLEST TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY
WARMER EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143-
146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR LSZ147-150.
DISCUSSION...JJM
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...JJM
FIRE WEATHER...JJM
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