795
FXUS63 KDLH 180546
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A 40-80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED RAINS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT ON FRIDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA/
BRAINERD LAKES REGION WHERE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED, ELSEWHERE LESSER AMOUNTS.
- THERE IS A 5% CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF A CASS LAKE TO MOOSE
LAKE TO PHILLIPS LINE.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING EACH DAY, BUT GENERALLY ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE NORMAL RANGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S
AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 MOST NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
AN ALMOST FALL-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEXT
6-8 DAYS WITH TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, BUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY.
TODAY INTO THURSDAY AN UNUSUALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES,
DEEPENING TO A ~985MB SURFACE LOW BY THE TIME IT IS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH IS APPROACHING (BUT
PROBABLY NOT EXCEEDING) SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDS PER WPC
CLIMATOLOGY RECORDS/RESEARCH. AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, THIS
SURFACE LOW IS ROTATING AROUND A NEAR- STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST RESULTING IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. AS THE STEADY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES MAY LEAD TO A FEW SPOTS WITH FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WRAP-AROUND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN ON THURSDAY WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, LESS THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WHERE IT DOES RAIN.
WITH SOME PEEKS OF SUN HIGHS WILL WARM UP INTO MID TO UPPER
60S, WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE.
ON FRIDAY A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST WITH A WEAK WARM TO OCCULUED-LIKE FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
AIRMASS, A PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND WEAK EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND,
WITH THE BEST BROAD-SCALE LIFT IN NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK (LESS THAN 400 J/KG
MUCAPE) BUT LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING IF DISCRETE
STORMS FORM THEY COULD POSE A BRIEF MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE
TWIN PORTS/MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AROUND 40-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR AMOUNTS
OVER A QUARTER INCH FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MN, PERHAPS EVEN OVER A
HALF INCH (15-25 PERCENT PROB) WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST FRIDAY WITH HIGHS JUST
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY, AROUND 70 FOR MOST SPOTS,
BUT CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WEST TO EAST TOWARDS SUNSET.
FOR SATURDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN DRY AIR MOVING
IN. TO THE NORTH, THE NEAR-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MANITOBA FINALLY BREAKS ITS GRIP AS A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EAST, WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW SOUTH THIS LOW DIGS,
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
MN ARROWHEAD ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BROAD
SUBSIDENCE AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
HELPS TO REINFORCE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 70S, WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, CAUSING COOLER TEMPS BY LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE REST OF THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, WITH A PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TRACKS EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN SASKATACHEWAN AND A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
SURFACE LOW SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. AS THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED WARMING TREND FOR HIGHS -
LOW TO MID 70S MON AND TUES - WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE GIVEN THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF
THE AIRMASS AND A VERY LIMITED WINDOW TO ADVECT ANY RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.
BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST, ODDS ARE FOR THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST PER CPC OUTLOOKS - A WELCOME PATTERN GIVEN THE CURRENT
DROUGHT SITUATION OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SHOWERS HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNRISE. CLEARING SKIES WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IF THE PASS OVER A TERMINAL.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TODAY AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING THEN
LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY MORNING
IS RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS BUT GALE FORCE
GUSTS UNLIKELY (PROBABILITY LESS THAN 5 PERCENT). THESE WINDS
WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO 3-5 FEET AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST
AND WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT, LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ON THURSDAY, NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, POSSIBLY
APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS HAVING A
30-50% CHANCE TO REACH 22 KNOTS AT THEIR PEAK.
WEAK WEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS AT MOST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ARRIVE ON SUNDAY,
WITH WINDS OF 10-12 KNOTS. NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
NEXT TUESDAY, OTHERWISE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 6-10 DAYS. THE DRIEST DAY IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO
AROUND 30-40 PERCENT, BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY'S WELCOME RAINFALL WILL COME WITH JUST A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN NORTH- CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL MN, LESSER
ALONG/NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND MN ARROWHEAD, BUT APPROACHING
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH WHERE
THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH IN PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
(INCLUDING THE BRAINERD LAKES AND CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST), BUT
LOWER AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
AFTER FRIDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, COOLEST TODAY AND THURSDAY
THEN GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ144-145.
DISCUSSION...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...JJM
FIRE WEATHER...JJM
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