590
FXUS63 KDLH 190817
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ON
TODAY, WITH THE BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE US HWY 2 CORRIDOR.
- THERE IS A 5 TO 10% CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF US HWY 2 IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO
1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 MOST
NIGHTS. FOR COMPARISON, NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID TO UPPER 70S AND
NORMAL LOWS ARE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
OVERNIGHT - EARLY FRIDAY MORNING:
VERY LOCALIZED FOG HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING, WHERE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OCCURRED THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT TO
NEED ANY ADVISORIES, BUT THERE COULD BE VIS DROPS TO AROUND 1
MILE FOR ANY EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS NORTH OF US-2.
TODAY:
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
LOOSELY ORGANIZED WAVES OF ACTIVITY, THE FIRST BEHIND A WEAK
ELEVATED WARM FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY AND AHEAD OF A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT,
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PARAMETER SPACE REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SMALL TO LARGE HAIL, GIVEN
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND GUST TO AROUND 50MPH, BUT WEAK SHEAR
VALUES WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST CHANCES FOR A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-2 EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
FRIDAY:
A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
BRINGS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
PWATS AROUND 0.8-1.0" ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND
50-55F WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. HIGH-RES MODEL FORECAST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
TREND HIGHER FOR THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING HOURS, WITH
MLCAPE OF 200-500 J/KG IN MOST OF NE MN AND 300-800 J/KG IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO NW WI. THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH 25-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR,
STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 6-6.5 DEG C/KM WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED,
MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST/HAIL THREAT WITH ANY
DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP (5-10% CHANCE). THE HAZARDS WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, HAIL UP
TO 1" IN SIZE, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET, SO THE WINDOW OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS MAINLY IN THE 1 PM - 9 PM
TIMEFRAME. PRECIPITATION THEN ENDS WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING
TO OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT. PROBABILITIES FOR >0.25" OF
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY ARE 50-70% FOR MUCH OF NE MN ALONG AND WEST
OF THE US HWY 53 CORRIDOR, HIGHEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN. THESE
SAME AREAS HAVE A 20- 40% CHANCE FOR >0.5" OF RAINFALL, MAINLY
TIED TO LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON
FRIDAY, THEN SOME CLEARING IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN TOWARDS SUNSET AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT DAYTIME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
THIS WEEKEND:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS SLIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PREDOMINATELY DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. WITH THAT SAID, A CUT-OFF LOW ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN
CHURNING NEAR THE NORTHEAST MANITOBA/FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO BORDER
WILL EVENTUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR SOMETIME LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, THOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC MID-
RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT DIGS, AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH THESE CUT-OFF
LOWS. THEREFORE, WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL (10-40% CHANCE) MAINLY IN THE MN ARROWHEAD ON
SATURDAY OR TO A LESSER EXTENT ON SUNDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE DUE TO THE OVERALL DRIER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE TWIN PORTS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY (I.E. TODAY/THURSDAY) OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA ON FRIDAY AND THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS WEEKEND. THAT SYSTEM THEN SLIDES
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, MANITOBA, AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO MOVES THROUGH DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME, WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, TO
WESTERN MN BY TUESDAY, AND THROUGH OUR REGION SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE
LIKELY ON MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THIS TIMEFRAME IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ON TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST,
THEN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STILL A BIT EARLY TO PIN DOWN POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE ORIGIN OF
THIS SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH A LACK OF
ADEQUATE GULF MOISTURE FROM OUR SOUTH FAVORS A MORE LIMITED
INSTABILITY SETUP AND WEAKER STORMS. CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW/FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND:
MODELS DIVERGE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS FOR LATE
JUNE FAVOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS AROUND 6KFT REMAIN FROM THURSDAY
EVENING'S CONVECTION, WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
VERY LOCALIZED FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, STARTING AT BRD
MID- MORNING AND SPREADING EAST TO THE REMAINING TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AT BRD/HYR WHERE LARGE
HAIL AND A WIND GUST OF 40-50KT (~5% CHANCE) WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS PASS THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10KTS THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA BEHIND THE
CONVECTION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KTS, WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE WESTERN ARM
OF LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, THE BRAINERD LAKES, AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.1" EXPECTED FOR THE ARROWHEAD,
BUT 0.1-0.4" ELSEWHERE. AREAS THAT SEE STORMS COULD SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.5", AS WELL. A FEW STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST TO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. HAIL UP TO 1", WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE HAZARDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MIN RH IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 40% TODAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES
(20-40%) OF A SHOWER OR STORM LIMITED TO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD. RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DIP TO 35-50%
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER INTO
THE WEEKEND AT 5 TO 15 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WITH DAYTIME WINDS STRONGEST IN
THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO PRIMARILY THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP MINIMUM
RH VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA/ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA/ROTHSTEIN
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