467
FXUS63 KDLH 200542
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS END THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
- ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED, NON-SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50F MOST NIGHTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
COMPARISON, NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID TO UPPER 70S AND NORMAL LOWS
ARE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT:
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE MN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THAT IS SLOWLY EXPANDING EAST INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD
AND NW WI. SOME CLEARING DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN BEHIND
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE EASTERN ND/WESTERN MN
BORDER. THIS HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO
DEVELOP AND INITIATE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
WESTERN/WEST-CENTRAL MN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. BEST
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA, THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO INLAND NW
WI, STEEPENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 20 TO LOCALLY 30 KT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WALKER, MN, TO HAYWARD, WI, LINE. THE HAZARDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, HAIL UP TO 1"
IN SIZE, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET, SO THE WINDOW OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS MAINLY IN THE 2 PM - 8 PM
TIMEFRAME, WITH STORMS EXITING NW WI LATE THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION THEN ENDS WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
AS AND AFTER THE RAINFALL DEPARTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.2-0.5" ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND, THOUGH
SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE ARROWHEAD. ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE ONE OR
SEVERAL STORMS MOVE OVERHEAD COULD SEE LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1".
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, AND THEN FALL
INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50F TONIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND:
THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY,
BUT DOES BRING A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
ON SATURDAY WITH IT. THIS FRONT, COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. SOME SMALL INSTABILITY OF 100-200 J/KG OF
MLCAPE COULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED, NON-SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE IRON RANGE TO TWIN PORTS AND IN NW WI. A DRIER AIR MASS
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS
RAIN-FREE.
TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ON SATURDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE TWIN PORTS.
EARLY - MID NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, MANITOBA, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, TO WESTERN MN BY
TUESDAY, AND THROUGH OUR REGION ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIKELY ON MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
THIS TIMEFRAME IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY, THEN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL
EARLY REGARDING ASSESSMENT OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL, HAZARDS, AND FAVORED LOCATIONS, BUT MORE
GENERAL GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DOES PAINT FAIRLY WEAK
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY LATE TUESDAY, SO FOR
NOW EXPECT MAINLY WEAKER STORMS, BUT FURTHER ASSESSMENT WILL BE
NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND:
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME LOOSE AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, AND THEN SOME VARIATION OF
SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY LOW-END DIURNAL SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS TIME
HOUR, WITH NO IMMEDIATE IMPACTS AT FORECAST TERMINALS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT, FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP,
WITH CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR. WILL INCLUDE VIS AND CIG
REDUCTIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH SUNRISE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND POTENTIALLY THE SOUTH SHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE AREAL COVERAGE, WILL NOT INCLUDE
SHOWERS AT ANY FORECAST TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 6-10KTS DURING THE DAY, WITH VFR
CIGS BY EARLY TO MID MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5 TO 15 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 KTS FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN THE WESTERN ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE SOUTH SHORE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE TWIN PORTS WHERE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS AND THEN
TURN NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.2-0.5"
EXPECTED, THOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE ARROWHEAD. AREAS THAT SEE
STORMS COULD SEE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5-1". HAIL UP TO
1", WIND GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, WITH
BEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WALKER, MN, TO HAYWARD, WI,
LINE. MIN RH IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 40%
THIS AFTERNOON, BEING LOWEST IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN.
THE TREND FOR HAS BEEN TO LIKELY SEEING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS DEVELOP FOR THE IRON RANGE TO TWIN
PORTS AND AREAS NORTH IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, AND ALSO IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY, NON-SEVERE
STORMS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING, EITHER. SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES (20-40%) OF A
SHOWER OR STORM LIMITED TO THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. RH VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DIP TO 40-50% ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER INTO THE WEEKEND AT 5 TO
15 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY, WITH DAYTIME WINDS STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR
VICINITY. LOWER MIN RH OF 30-40% IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
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