795
FXUS63 KDLH 200909
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED, NON-SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50F MOST NIGHTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
COMPARISON, NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID TO UPPER 70S AND NORMAL LOWS
ARE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS MORNING, WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
LOCALIZED FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. FOG WILL PERSISTENT THROUGH
SUNRISE, WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VIS NEAR
THE TWIN PORTS AND SHORELINES, WITH A MIX OF CIGS BELOW 1KFT.
FOR TODAY, THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE NOW WELL
TO OUR EAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVER
THE NORTHLAND. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST OF THE US-53 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT PRESENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 6-7C/KM WITH THIN CAPE PROFILES, AND CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
A DRIER AIR MASS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY,
KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON SUNDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE TWIN
PORTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
EARLY - MID NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, MANITOBA, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, TO WESTERN MN BY
TUESDAY, AND THROUGH OUR REGION ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIKELY ON MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
THIS TIMEFRAME IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY, THEN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL
EARLY REGARDING ASSESSMENT OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL, HAZARDS, AND FAVORED LOCATIONS, BUT MORE
GENERAL GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DOES PAINT FAIRLY WEAK
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY LATE TUESDAY, SO FOR
NOW EXPECT MAINLY WEAKER STORMS, BUT FURTHER ASSESSMENT WILL BE
NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND:
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME LOOSE AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, AND THEN SOME VARIATION OF
SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY LOW-END DIURNAL SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS TIME
HOUR, WITH NO IMMEDIATE IMPACTS AT FORECAST TERMINALS. AS WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT, FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP,
WITH CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR. WILL INCLUDE VIS AND CIG
REDUCTIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH SUNRISE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND POTENTIALLY THE SOUTH SHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE AREAL COVERAGE, WILL NOT INCLUDE
SHOWERS AT ANY FORECAST TERMINAL AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 6-10KTS DURING THE DAY, WITH VFR
CIGS BY EARLY TO MID MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO,
MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE, NORTH OF SILVER BAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, REMAINING AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
FOR THE IRON RANGE TO TWIN PORTS AND AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA, AND ALSO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY, NON-SEVERE STORMS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, EITHER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH, BUT VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER SHOWERS OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY THEN
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 40-50% ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE LIGHTER AT 5 TO 15 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WITH DAYTIME WINDS STRONGEST IN
THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. LOWER MIN RH OF 30-40% IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA/ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA/ROTHSTEIN
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