307
FXUS63 KDLH 201137
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED, NON-SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50F MOST NIGHTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR
COMPARISON, NORMAL HIGHS ARE MID TO UPPER 70S AND NORMAL LOWS
ARE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
EARLY - MID NEXT WEEK:
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MID-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, MANITOBA, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, TO WESTERN MN BY
TUESDAY, AND THROUGH OUR REGION ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIKELY ON MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
THIS TIMEFRAME IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY, THEN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL
EARLY REGARDING ASSESSMENT OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL,
INCLUDING POTENTIAL, HAZARDS, AND FAVORED LOCATIONS, BUT MORE
GENERAL GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DOES PAINT FAIRLY WEAK
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY LATE TUESDAY, SO FOR
NOW EXPECT MAINLY WEAKER STORMS, BUT FURTHER ASSESSMENT WILL BE
NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW/FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND:
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME LOOSE AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, AND THEN SOME VARIATION OF
SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY LOW-END DIURNAL SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
LOW STRATUS AND FOG COVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING,
WITH ONLY SCT CIGS AT BRD. A MIX OF CIG HEIGHTS, VARYING FROM
300FT TO AROUND 1KFT, WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
2-3HRS. CIGS WILL SCATTER AND LIFT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
FORECAST TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 5-8KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A GUST TO
16-18KTS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND POTENTIALLY THE SOUTH SHORE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE AREAL COVERAGE, WILL NOT INCLUDE
SHOWERS AT ANY FORECAST TERMINAL AT THIS TIME.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO,
MAINLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE, NORTH OF SILVER BAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, REMAINING AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
FOR THE IRON RANGE TO TWIN PORTS AND AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA, AND ALSO IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY, NON-SEVERE STORMS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, EITHER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH, BUT VERY LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER SHOWERS OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY THEN
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 40-50% ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE LIGHTER AT 5 TO 15 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WITH DAYTIME WINDS STRONGEST IN
THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. LOWER MIN RH OF 30-40% IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA/ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA/ROTHSTEIN
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