197
FXUS63 KDLH 210557
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1257 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LINGER, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF BRAINERD, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINS OVER NEIGHBORING ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DRIVE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOCUSED OVER
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST WITH JUST ENOUGH CAPE AND HIGH
ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO EEK OUT SOME LIGHTNING. THE LOW FREEZING
LEVELS HELP IN LIGHTNING GENERATION AND ALSO INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR PEA-SIZED HAIL. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP
WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED WAVES TO SKIRT THROUGH. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH
DRIER AND QUIETER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT CHILLY FOR LATE JUNE,
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR EVEN COOLER. THESE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST RIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN.
OUR NEXT NOTABLE CHANGE ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS WILL BECOME
LIKELY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS TO INCH EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL
FAVOR SLIGHT DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK CLOSER TO
OUR SEASONAL NORMALS AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S AND WE BEGIN TO BUILD
INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONGER ONES TOO BY THE END OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, BUT
WITH LIMITED RAIN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AND BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AT 10KTS OVERNIGHT, DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD VIS
REDUCTIONS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, REMAINING AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WAVES WILL BE 1 FOOT OR LESS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON
TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL OCCUR
TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 40 TO 50
PERCENT. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AT LIGHTER SPEEDS, BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL FURTHER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY
TUESDAY WITH A WETTING RAIN POSSIBLE.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...WOLFE
FIRE WEATHER...WOLFE
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