366
FXUS63 KDLH 211950
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MARINE FOG MAY DEVELOP OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MOVE REDUCE VISIBILITY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AS IT MOVES INLAND.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE ON TUESDAY,
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO 1" IN DIAMETER ARE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LINGER ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE RAIN POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
CONDITIONS TODAY HAVE BEEN PLEASANT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA,
WITH ONE SFC HIGH BEING LOCATED AROUND LAKE WINNIPEG AND ANOTHER
OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM AND A WEAK 500MB
RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY, THIS WILL MAINTAIN
BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. DIURNAL HEATING HAS
DEVELOPED SCATTERED CUMULUS, WHICH WILL BE DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET.
FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPS
COOLING TO THE MID 40S. AS WINDS BECOME CALM DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
PROPAGATING TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL
MARINE FOG DEVELOP AND AN ADVECTION OF THIS FOG ONSHORE ON MONDAY AS
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OCCUR. ANY MARINE FOG THAT DOES ADVECT INLAND
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING OCCURS. FOR AREAS INLAND,
TOMORROW WILL VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS VERTICALLY-
STACKED LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT OCCLUDED
FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
(80-95% CHANCE) TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT QPF IS FORECAST TO BE
HIGHEST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL WI, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 0.5" TO 1".
A FEW STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKE TO AROUND THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WHERE SPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION, WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IN THE 30-45 KNOT RANGE, INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BE THE LIMITING FACTORS. THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY BE FROM 18-02Z, AS A SURGE OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS UP TO THE LOW 60S ADVECTS NORTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL HELP GENERATE MODEST MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHEN COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEGC/KM. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE CONVECTION IS LOW
AT THIS TIME, AS THE BEST PWATS AND INSTABILITY WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION, THIS SEVERE CHANCE IS LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT ADVECTS BEFORE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT ARRIVES. IF SEVERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS
FAR NORTH, THE MAIN CONCERN IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.
FOLLOWING THIS MID-WEEK SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE, A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN IS FAVORED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
250MB JET STREAK HELPING TO PROPAGATE THE VERTICALL-STACKED LOW INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY, SLOWING THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW AND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, MOST LIKELY
FROM DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT PERSISTS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE THOUGH
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
DIURNAL VFR HEIGHT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION, EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET AS DIURNAL
HEATING ENDS AND DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS. MODELS INDICATE THAT FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE
ADVECTING INLAND. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS
MARINE FOG WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HILL AND NOT IMPACT KDLH. VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TOMORROW,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS OF 5 KTS OR
LESS ON MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AS WINDS EASE
TONIGHT, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS MODERATE, AS SEVERAL, BUT NOT ALL,
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST FOG. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP,
THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AS LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ADVECT FOG INLAND.
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS, WAVES WILL BE 1 FOOT OR LESS TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING INTO THE REGION FROM MANITOBA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATELY DRY MIN RH ON MONDAY IN
THE 30-40% RANGE. WHILE THIS CANADIAN HIGH WILL PRODUCE DRIER RH,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, ANOTHER CUMULUS FIELD WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED (80-95% CHANCE) TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY WHERE
0.5" TO 1" OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. EXPECT LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH IN THE ARROWHEAD AND RAINY LAKE AREA, WITH AS LITTLE
AS 0.05" OF RAIN FORECAST IN MOST OF COOK COUNTY.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...UNRUH
FIRE WEATHER...UNRUH
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