143
FXUS63 KDLH 061116
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
616 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOTTER AND STICKY TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RETURNING BACK
INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES OVER THE
AREA TODAY, LEADING TO A CALM WEATHER DAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
UNTIL THIS EVENING. RIDGING WILL ALLOW HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BLOSSOM
INTO THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW. AFTERNOON HIGHS RISE INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASINGLY MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 60S. TUESDAY COULD SPORT SOME DEW POINTS MOVING UP INTO
THE LOW 70S. WHILE NO HEAT HEADLINES ARE PLANNED, EXPECT IT TO BE
FEEL VERY MUGGY FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED DOWN INTO THE
ND/MN BORDER TODAY, WHICH SHOULD PROMPT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A PLUME OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY
AND MODEST SHEAR. THIS SHOULD PUSH EAST, MAINTAINING A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT SEVERE STORM RISK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MN. STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SITUATION
WHERE STORMS START TO FIZZLE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE DIURNALLY FORCED INSTABILITY
WANES.
THAT COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
SHOULD HELP LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING SHIFTS A LITTLE MORE EAST AND SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN OVERALL MADDOX FRONTAL PATTERN SETS UP LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MORPHS INTO A
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY ONE SOMEWHERE ACROSS MN-WI-UPPER
MICHIGAN. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THIS FRONT WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL LAYING DOWN THE BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN ANYWHERE FROM THE IRON RANGE TO THE NORTHERN TWIN CITIES
SUBURBS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST INDICATOR OF WEDNESDAY STATIONARY FRONT
PLACEMENT, THOUGH A RESERVOIR OF THE BEST INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH
COULD FAVOR A SLIGHT PULL TOWARDS THE LOWER CWA BORDER. WHEREVER
THAT BAND DOES END UP, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS, SKINNY SATURATED CAPE
PROFILES, DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS, AND FAIRLY SLOW WINDS/CORFIDI
VECTORS CHECK ALL THE BOXES FOR FLASH FLOOD DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAIN
OF 2-4", LOCALLY UP TO 6-7" IS POSSIBLE. IF THE HEAVIEST BAND SET UP
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES/GRAND RAPIDS AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO
NW WI THAT MIGHT BE PARTICULARLY CONCERNING SINCE 1) THIS AREA HAS
SEEN SOME OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LAST WEEK AND 2) IT
CONTAINS THE MOST URBAN AREAS IN OUR CWA WHICH WOULD BE MORE
PREDISPOSED FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE AMOUNTS OF IMPERVIOUS
SURFACES. ONCE THE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN GAINS SOME FORECAST
CONFIDENCE, A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SOME ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION.
EXPECT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE OVER THE NORTHLAND
TODAY, PROVIDING A GENERALLY PLEASANT AND QUIET END TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND
MINOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW
MEANDERING, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STRAY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. MOST FOLKS WILL STAY COMPLETELY DRY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND, WHILE
ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE NOTICEABLY COOLER. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
MONDAY BRINGS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE AIRMASS AS SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW PULLS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THIS FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE HOT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, PACKING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY CONCERNING FOR LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OUT AND BECOMES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED DIRECTLY
ACROSS OUR REGION. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING THIS PERIOD FOR A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. THE INTENSE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY CREATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. THE EURO EFI
(EXTREME FORECAST INDEX) SIGNAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME HAS BEEN
TRENDING UPWARDS SUGGESTING HIGHER CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. THE FORECAST CEILING (THE MAXIMUM
PERCENTILE FROM THE NBM FOR THIS SETUP) FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 7 INCHES. WHILE THIS REPRESENTS WHAT COULD HAPPEN OVER A
SMALL AREA, THE MEAN GIVES A BETTER IDEA OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CHANCES WHICH ARE MORE THAN 1" FOR AT LEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS IS ALONG A BAND FROM
BRAINERD TO MOOSE LAKE TO ASHLAND. THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS
BAND WILL LIKELY FADE QPF QUICKLY TO ITS NORTH LEAVING THE
BORDERLANDS OUT OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. NOW, AS THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION MENTIONED THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE COLD FRONT STALLS AND TURNS INTO A
STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE TO PUMP
MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE FRONT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF THE REGION, BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED REPRIEVE FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL BACK INTO THE MORE
COMFORTABLE 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
HOVER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WHICH WILL SLOWLY START TO
DIAL THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WITH ATTENDING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INL, HIB, AND BRD. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DLH
AND HYR ARE CURRENTLY LOW, DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION BEING EXPECTED
TO FIZZLE OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A FAIRLY CALM DAY ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON LIGHT ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING. WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
GRAND PORTAGE AND ISLE ROYALE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR VERY LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. EXPECT POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TODAY ALONG WITH FURTHER WARMING
TEMPERATURES. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM NW TO SE ALONG A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS FIZZLE
OUT BEFORE MAKING IT TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW WI. AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN. THERE IS AN INCREASING
SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE
NORTH SIDE, POTENTIALLY LEAVING AREAS CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER MOSTLY DRY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON EXACT PLACEMENT
HOWEVER.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...LEVENS
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...LEVENS
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