880
FXUS63 KDLH 062339
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE MID WEEK UNDER A RAIN BAND
WITH A STALLED FRONT. SOME AREAS THAT HAVE HAD RECENT RAINFALL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR THE MID WEEK.
- A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM HUMIDITY COMES LATE WEEK WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE BEFORE IT BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. STORMS HAVE INITIATED IN CANADA, AND IS
STARTING TO UNZIP TO THE SOUTH IN A LINE INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. AS THESE TRACK INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH CAPE
VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER,
CAMS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN THE LOW LEVELS,
WHICH WILL KEEP STORMS ELEVATED. HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS 60-70 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT TORNADO CHANCES
ARE LOW DUE TO THEIR ELEVATED BASES. SOME PONDING IS POSSIBLE
WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH.
THE MID WEEK FLOODING POTENTIAL IS STILL HIGH AS THE FRONT
STALLS AND BECOMES STATIONARY. MODELS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ON
EXACT PLACEMENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL SET UP, BUT MOST MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLES PUT THE BAND
IN NORTHERN MN/WI. THE BAND PLACEMENT STILL RANGES FROM THE
IRON RANGE TO THE TWIN CITIES. THIS SETUP FAVORS TRAINING
STORMS THAT CAN DROP MULTIPLE INCHES OF WATER, BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT RISK OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING TO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL RAIN TOTALS RANGE BETWEEN 2-4
INCHES UNDER THE BAND, THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IS
POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE HEAVY RAIN SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST, BRINGING A WELCOME END TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CAUSING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHLAND. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
GRADUALLY DRAW HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE
REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING INL AND WILL REACH HIB AND BRD IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY QUICKLY, AND MAY BE
UP TO MVFR BY TIME IT REACHES HIB AFTER PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS
AT INL. ADDITIONALLY, THE QUICK WEAKENING PUTS INTO QUESTION OF
WHETHER THESE WILL MAKE IT TO DLH. THE FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STALL OUT TOMORROW, LEADING TO A NARROW
LINE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WHERE THIS BAND WILL SET UP IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT IT IS CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND
HYR, SO ADDED A PROB30 FOR THAT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
EXPECT CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH A LIGHT
ONSHORE LAKE BREEZE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH SHORE.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE WESTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND
ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH SHORE. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
MPH POSSIBLE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG A
COLD FRONT, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING TUESDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY.
WINDS TURN LIGHTER AND SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY MID-WEEK BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND STILL
WARM TEMPERATURES.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML
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