157
FXUS63 KDLH 071128
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
628 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY, THEN A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
- MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE HEAT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THIS MORNING'S PASSING COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD THE WAY
FOR A STATIONARY FRONT TO SET UP FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY. ALONG THIS FRONT, EXPECT GENERALLY
PRETTY SLOW STORM MOTIONS, ROBUST PWATS, AND TRAINING STORMS SO
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY. A BAND OF 1-3" OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 4-6" POSSIBLE. MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACEMENT LOOKING TO BE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES, FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO
NW WI. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SOME SOLUTIONS THAT PUT THE HEAVY
BAND DIRECTLY OVER THE TWIN PORTS OR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TWIN
CITIES, AND RUN-TO-RUN PLACEMENT IS STILL VARIABLE, SO CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. WHERE THAT HEAVY RAIN DOES FALL, SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY. ONCE THE AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN
GAINS SOME FORECAST CONFIDENCE, A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE
OF CONVECTION. EXPECT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
EXPECT A FAIRLY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FURTHER SOUTH. FOLLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT
PRECIPITATION, A COOLER DAY SHOULD BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND NOTABLY LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THOSE
LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY WITH US FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WE STAY IN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY, ANY SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THAT FLOW
COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
ROBUST UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL
PROBABLY DRIVE THE TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD 90S POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL,
POSSIBLY AFFECTING BRD BY THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE ALL OTHER SITES
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.EXPECT CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
IFR LEVELS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A FAIRLY CALM DAY ON LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND, EXCEPT NEAR SHORE FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO SAXON HARBOR WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. EXPECT POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD BE SEVERE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING. THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN, MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 2 IN MN AND ACROSS NW WI.
IN THAT AREA, 1-3" OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 4"+. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN. AFTERNOON RH OF 35-40% IS POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TOMORROW IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE (OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS)
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LITTLE RAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A WARM-
UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
FIRE WEATHER...LEVENS
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